The risk of selective investment in downstream pandemic planning

MacIntyre, Raina

doi:10.31646/gbio.36

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Epidemic diseases grow exponentially and rapidly [ 31 ], as seen in China, Europe, and the United States [ 32 ]. Early detection and epidemic control can reduce epidemic growth and prevent further spread.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The world is increasingly interconnected; therefore, it is essential to identify epidemics early [ 14 ]. A disease with true epidemic potential can grow exponentially within weeks or months; thus, each day of delay is a lost opportunity for prevention [ 15 ]. Rapid prediction, detection, and surveillance of outbreaks are critical in fighting emerging infectious diseases with epidemic potential [ 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using Open-Source Intelligence to Detect Early Signals of COVID-19 in China: Descriptive Study

Kpozehouen¹,

Chen²,

Zhu³

et al. 2020

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31, 2019, and the first cases were officially identified around December 8, 2019. Although the origin of COVID-19 has not been confirmed, approximately half of the early cases were linked to a seafood market in Wuhan. However, the first two documented patients did not visit the seafood market. News reports, social media, and informal sources may provide information about outbreaks prior to formal notification. Objective The aim of this study was to identify early signals of pneumonia or severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in China prior to official recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak in December 2019 using open-source data. Methods To capture early reports, we searched an open source epidemic observatory, EpiWatch, for SARI or pneumonia-related illnesses in China from October 1, 2019. The searches were conducted using Google and the Chinese search engine Baidu. Results There was an increase in reports following the official notification of COVID-19 to the WHO on December 31, 2019, and a report that appeared on December 26, 2019 was retracted. A report of severe pneumonia on November 22, 2019, in Xiangyang was identified, and a potential index patient was retrospectively identified on November 17. Conclusions The lack of reports of SARI outbreaks prior to December 31, 2019, with a retracted report on December 26, suggests media censorship, given that formal reports indicate that cases began appearing on December 8. However, the findings also support a relatively recent origin of COVID-19 in November 2019. The case reported on November 22 was transferred to Wuhan approximately one incubation period before the first identified cases on December 8; this case should be further investigated, as only half of the early cases were exposed to the seafood market in Wuhan. Another case of COVID-19 has since been retrospectively identified in Hubei on November 17, 2019, suggesting that the infection was present prior to December.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Open-Source Intelligence to Detect Early Signals of COVID-19 in China: Descriptive Study

Kpozehouen¹,

Chen²,

Zhu³

et al. 2020

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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show abstract

“…1,2 Governments everywhere plan for pandemics, because their impact can cause sharp shocks to economies and societies and require a substantial surge in health system capacity. 3 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged in late 2019, and began infecting humans in December 2019. 4 Only half of the initial cluster of cases had exposure at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On a knife’s edge of a COVID-19 pandemic: is containment still possible?

MacIntyre¹

2020

Public Healt Res Pract

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“…Behind this activity on the ground lies a substantial but largely unsung public infrastructure including laws, workforce, information management and research to safeguard the public's health. 1 First among these is the legal basis for public health action. Every jurisdiction in Australia has public health laws passed by parliament, operationally articulated through accompanying regulations and statutes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%