The risk of marine bioinvasion caused by global shipping

Seebens, Hanno; Gastner, Michael T.; Blasius, Bernd

doi:10.1111/ele.12111

Cited by 394 publications

(445 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…It is now established that trade and transport of alien species are principal determinants of IAS distributions worldwide (Hulme, 2009; Seebens, Gastner, & Blasius, 2013), but climate change will alter those distributions in the future (Bellard et al., 2013). Our results here reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of IAS distribution in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Bellard

Jeschke

Leroy

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

141

109

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Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Bellard

Jeschke

Leroy

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

141

109

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“…Without any model validation, however, it is nearly impossible to assess the quality and the reliability of model predictions, which hampers the application of models for the management of alien species. In recent years, appropriate highquality data have been made accessible by various online databases, but testing model predictions with these data has still been lacking.Model frameworks to predict the likelihood of new invasions have already been developed (10,11,13). However, these were not able to predict the identity of new invaders, but only the likelihood that any new species arrives from a certain source region on Earth.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Model frameworks to predict the likelihood of new invasions have already been developed (10,11,13). However, these were not able to predict the identity of new invaders, but only the likelihood that any new species arrives from a certain source region on Earth.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

Seebens

Schwartz

Schupp

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

150

112

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The human-mediated translocation of species poses a distinct threat to nature, human health, and economy. Although existing models calculate the invasion probability of any species, frameworks for species-specific forecasts are still missing. Here, we developed a model approach using global ship movements and environmental conditions to simulate the successive global spread of marine alien species that allows predicting the identity of those species likely to arrive next in a given habitat. In a first step, we simulated the historical steppingstone spreading dynamics of 40 marine alien species and compared predicted and observed alien species ranges. With an accuracy of 77%, the model correctly predicted the presence/absence of an alien species in an ecoregion. Spreading dynamics followed a common pattern with an initial invasion of most suitable habitats worldwide and a subsequent spread into neighboring habitats. In a second step, we used the reported distribution of 97 marine algal species with a known invasion history, and six species causing harmful algal blooms, to determine the ecoregions most likely to be invaded next under climate warming. Cluster analysis revealed that species can be classified according to three characteristic spreading profiles: emerging species, high-risk species, and widespread species. For the North Sea, the model predictions could be confirmed because two of the predicted high-risk species have recently invaded the North Sea. This study highlights that even simple models considering only shipping intensities and habitat matches are able to correctly predict the identity of the next invading marine species. alien species | model predictions | species identity | marine ecoregion | climate change T he number of alien species transported by human assistance has increased rapidly during the last decades with serious consequences for native flora and fauna (1-3). These biological invasions are considered to be one of the major drivers of biodiversity changes (4-6). Once an unwanted alien species has naturalized in the new environment, it is nearly impossible to eradicate the species, and thus the mitigation of further introduction is the most efficient way of combating biological invasions (6, 7). However, a targeted monitoring and an efficient adaptive management requires knowledge about spreading dynamics of the next potential invaders and thus about the distribution of species, their invasiveness, and the likelihood of new introductions. Although all of these topics have been analyzed on their own, the potential to predict the spreading of alien species while combining these components remains to be tested.A large amount of recent introductions can be attributed to the intensified global trade and transport as many species were accidentally or deliberately translocated through the exchange of commodities or the movements of transportation means (8, 9). The amount of exchanged commodities and the intensity of global traffic have therefore been found to be a good predictor to model th...

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“…Long-distance (∼10,000 km) jumps are very common. Previous work by Seebens et al (15) indicated that invasion risk was highest for intermediate geographic distances between donor and recipient ports. These patterns contrast with classical models of wavelike directional spread (17) in which the probability of invasion of any given target region is an inverse function of its distance from the nearest donor region.…”

Section: Ships As Global Dispersers Of Aquatic Organismsmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Invasion risks associated with shipping have been examined recently for specific recipient systems (6,12) and for a small group of species (13). Studies have identified high-risk invasion routes and invasion hotspots (14,15), but no previous study has tested a modeling approach that predicts both the identity and likelihood of establishment of alien species on a global scale. Moreover, insufficient validation of models casts doubt on the accuracy and certainty of their predictions.…”

Section: Ships As Global Dispersers Of Aquatic Organismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking marine alien species by ship movements

Ricciardi

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The risk of marine bioinvasion caused by global shipping

Cited by 394 publications

References 33 publications

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

Tracking marine alien species by ship movements

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