The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

McBryde, Emma S.; Meehan, Michael T.; Doan, Tan; Ragonnet, Romain; Marais, Ben J.; Guernier, Vanina; Trauer, James M.

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2017.01.031

Cited by 76 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…1 Large numbers of patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR; resistance to at least both isoniazid and rifampicin) TB, and potential epidemic spread of these drug-resistant strains, pose a particular challenge. 2,3 In 2016, Vietnam was ranked 16th among high-burden TB countries and 13th among high-burden MDR-TB countries in the world. 1 Multidrug-resistant TB was reported in 4.1% of new and 26% of retreatment TB cases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Resistance and Transmission among Human Immunodeficiency Virus–Infected Patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Quynh

Martínez

Menon

et al. 2018

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Vietnam has a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB, but drug resistance patterns and TB transmission dynamics among TB/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfected patients are not well described. We characterized 200 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from TB/HIV coinfected patients diagnosed at the main TB referral hospital in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) for first-line drugs, spoligotyping, and 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit (MIRU-24) analysis was performed on all isolates. The 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit clusters and MDR isolates were subjected to whole genome sequencing (WGS). Most of the TB/HIV coinfected patients were young (162/174; 93.1% aged < 45 years) males (173; 86.5% male). Beijing (98; 49.0%) and Indo-Oceanic (70; 35.0%) lineage strains were most common. Phenotypic drug resistance was detected in 84 (42.0%) isolates, of which 17 (8.5%) were MDR; three additional MDR strains were identified on WGS. Strain clustering was reduced from 84.0% with spoligotyping to 20.0% with MIRU-24 typing and to 13.5% with WGS. Whole genome sequencing identified five additional clusters, or members of clusters, not recognized by MIRU-24. In total, 13 small (two to three member) WGS clusters were identified, with less clustering among drug susceptible (2/27; 7.4%) than among drug-resistant strains (25/27; 92.6%). On phylogenetic analysis, strains from TB/HIV coinfected patients were interspersed among strains from the general community; no major clusters indicating transmission among people living with HIV were detected. Tuberculosis/HIV coinfection in Vietnam was associated with high rates of drug resistance and limited genomic evidence of ongoing M. tuberculosis transmission among HIV-infected patients.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Resistance and Transmission among Human Immunodeficiency Virus–Infected Patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Quynh

Martínez

Menon

et al. 2018

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…First, we extend previous work on disease emergence in an infection-naïve population [22] to address emergence of novel mutant strains competing against resident endemic strains. This is a simple but powerful theory that can inform multi-strain modelling projects going forward (e.g., [26,24]), including deterministic approximations, which can be applied once the outbreak has successfully established [28]. Second, we demonstrate that the time at which control measures are implemented has a substantial impact on the effectiveness of control for preventing the emergence of new strains, and that this varied by the chosen means of control.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 83%

On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: Accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

Meehan

Cope

McBryde

2020

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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a b s t r a c tPathogen evolution is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological and modelling communities. Outbreaks of new pathogens are often ignited by the emergence and transmission of mutant variants descended from wildtype strains circulating in the community. In this work we investigate the stochastic dynamics of the emergence of a novel disease strain, introduced into a population in which it must compete with an existing endemic strain. In analogy with past work on single-strain epidemic outbreaks, we apply a branching process approximation to calculate the probability that the new strain becomes established. As expected, a critical determinant of the survival prospects of any invading strain is the magnitude of its reproduction number relative to that of the background endemic strain. Whilst in most circumstances this ratio must exceed unity in order for invasion to be viable, we show that differential control scenarios can lead to less-fit novel strains invading populations hosting a fitter endemic one. This analysis and the accompanying findings will inform our understanding of the mechanisms that have led to past instances of successful strain invasion, and provide valuable lessons for thwarting future drug-resistant strain incursions.

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“…Penderita TB yang mengalami efek samping OAT akan cenderung untuk menghentikan pengobatannya (McBryde et al, 2017), dimana kondisi seperti ini yang menyebakan penderita TB masuk dalam kondisi putus berobat (drop out). Ketika penderita TB tidak melaksanakan pengobatan secara tuntas, maka akan terjadi mutase genetik kuman M. tuberculosis menjadi kuman M.Tb yang resisten terhadap OAT (Kigozi et al, 2017).…”

Section: Efek Samping Obatunclassified

Evaluation of Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Predictor Index in Surakarta, Central Java

Pamungkas

Rahardjo

Murti

2018

J EPIDEMIOL PUBLIC HEALTH

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global public health problem. New cases of lung Tuberculosis in 2015 were 10.4 million worldwide. One of the challenging in TB control to be addressed is the development of Multi Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB). There were an estimated 15,380 TB cases in Indonesia by 2015 with 1,860 positive TB cases and 1,566 cases successfully treated. This study aimed to determine the predictor index for MDR-TB. Subjects and Method:This was an analytic observational study with a case-control design. The study was conducted at Dr. Moewardi Hospital, Surakarta, Central Java, from August to November 2017. The study subjects were selected by fixed disease sampling including 75 MDR-TB patients and 75 TB patients. The dependent variable was MDR-TB. The independent variables were medical history, co-morbidity (Diabetes Mellitus), drug side effect, drug-taking supervisor, and regularity of treatment. The data were collected by questionnaire and medical record. The data were analyzed by a multiple logistic regression. Results: MDR-TB Occurrence Index increased with drug-taking supervisor (b = 2.33; 95% CI= 3.83 to 27.91; p<0.001), drug-side effect (b = 0.73; 95% CI= 0.58 to 7.45; p=0.026), medical history (b = 2.35; 95% CI= 3.80 to 29.38; p<0.001). MDR-TB Occurrence Index decreased by absence of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (b = -0.56; 95% CI= 0.18 to 1.78; p= 0.033), regular treatment (b = -1.73; 95% CI= 0.06 to 0.46; p<0.001). Conclusion: MDR-TB Occurrence Index is determined by drug-taking supervisor, drug-side effect, medical history, Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, and regular treatment.

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The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

Cited by 76 publications

References 35 publications

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Resistance and Transmission among Human Immunodeficiency Virus–Infected Patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Resistance and Transmission among Human Immunodeficiency Virus–Infected Patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: Accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

Evaluation of Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Predictor Index in Surakarta, Central Java

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