2020
DOI: 10.1177/0008125620915289
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The Risk of De-Risking Innovation: Optimal R&D Strategies in Ambiguous Environments

Abstract: This article develops a framework for driving innovation under highly ambiguous conditions. An analysis of the most novel medicines of the past 20 years shows that a very large group of small companies created more breakthroughs, at considerably less overall cost, than a much smaller group of very large companies. This article’s findings present the first large-scale empirical validation of the theoretical literature predicting the superiority of decentralized parallel searches in ambiguous environments. Accor… Show more

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Cited by 11 publications
(7 citation statements)
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“…The authors of our article are similar to Drakeman and Oraiopoulos (2020) in their conclusions that the current conditions of the world economy are a "zone of uncertainty", especially when implementing an innovative project.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 54%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…The authors of our article are similar to Drakeman and Oraiopoulos (2020) in their conclusions that the current conditions of the world economy are a "zone of uncertainty", especially when implementing an innovative project.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 54%
“…In the article by Drakeman and Oraiopoulos (2020), the authors consider the influence of uncertainty conditions on risk assessment methods.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Anticipatory systems offer hypotheses that are not necessarily true but are an embodiment of an envisioned future state in relation to the premises (see Poli, 2019aPoli, , 2019b. Such reasoning has further implications for risk mitigation as the decision propels a potential spread of the first investment across multiple possible applications and added value propositions (see Drakeman & Oraiopoulos, 2020;Floricel & Ibanescu, 2008;Nagji & Tuff, 2012). This infers being anticipatory and proactive in hypothesizing different futures or operating contexts in which contingent opportunities can be generated (see Reeves et al, 2016Reeves et al, , 2021.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Innovation is at the top of the corporate agenda (Subramaniam and Youndt, 2005; Fu, 2015; Andersén and Ljungkvist, 2021) but failure rates are worryingly high in NPD (Nakata and Hwang, 2020). Managers understand that organizations that fail to innovate will simply become obsolete (Drakeman and Oraiopoulos, 2020). Some estimates suggest that as few as 10% of .new products introduced are successful (Castellion and Markham, 2013).…”
Section: Theoretical Background and Hypotheses Developmentmentioning
confidence: 99%