The Rise, Peak and Decline of the Seismic Hazard Related to Hydraulic Fracturing Activities in the Duvernay Play, Fox Creek Area, Alberta

Abstract

We analyze the temporal evolution of the induced seismicity related to hydraulic fracturing activities in the Duvernay Formation, near Fox Creek, Alberta, Canada. For this analysis, we estimate annual Gutenberg‐Richter parameters, a(t) $a(t)$‐ and b(t) $b(t)$‐ values, and then calculate the annual likelihood of earthquakes greater than magnitude M>4 $M > 4$ from 2014 to 2020. The seismic hazard near Fox Creek has consistently decreased since 2015, from a 95% probability of an earthquake greater than magnitude M>4 $M > 4$ in 2015 to 4% in 2019 and less than 1% probability in 2020. The induced seismicity in Fox Creek is characterized by two actively seismic regions with distinctive features: (a) an Eastern region (∼220 events M>2 $M > 2$) with lower b‐values and higher hazard; (b) a Western region (∼210 events M>2 $M > 2$) with higher b‐values and lower seismic hazard. In contrast, extensive regions where hydraulic fracturing is performed, particularly East of the seismic cluster, remain non‐seismogenic. The overall decreasing seismic hazard, which contrasts with increasing operator activity, can be associated with (a) the intensification of hydraulic fracturing operations toward areas less susceptible to induced seismicity and (b) the reduction of seismic activity in the Eastern region, which exhibits the highest seismic hazard. We also find evidence of a minimum annual injection volume required to trigger induced seismicity in both the Western and Eastern regions. The minimum injection threshold increases over the years, implying increasingly successful mitigation strategies, likely due to regulatory implementations in the area, which has led the operators to exercise precaution in regions with significant seismic hazard and adapt treatment strategies to avoid triggering moderate magnitude size events during hydraulic fracturing stimulations.

Evolution of Short‐Term Seismic Hazard in Alberta, Canada, From Induced and Natural Earthquakes: 2011–2020

“…S16 in Supporting Information S1). More details about the causes behind the seismic hazard decline in the Fox Creek area between 2016 and 2020 can be found in Reyes Canales et al (2022).…”

“…Additional background can be found in the analysis conducted by Reyes Canales et al. (2022). Red Deer (Duvernay Formation): Induced events related to hydraulic fracturing activities at the East Duvernay Shale Basin have been recorded near the city of Red Deer (Wang et al., 2020).…”

Basin-scale multi-decadal analysis of hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in western Canada shows non-recurrence of induced runaway fault rupture

“…In the Fox Creek area in central Alberta, Reyes-Canales et al 43 performed an assessment of event rates and Gutenberg-Richter b -values. This area is the subject of the Alberta Energy Regulator’s Subsurface Order No.…”

“…7 a). Reyes-Canales et al 43 suggested that some of this reduction in seismicity could be attributed to the targeting areas less susceptible to induced seismicity. However, it is also clear that there has been a reduction in the seismic activity of the eastern region inside the Fox Creek area that previously exhibited higher seismic activity.…”

Characterization of brittleness index of gas shale and its influence on favorable block exploitation in southwest China

“…The process of water injection during oil and gas or geothermal energy development has been identified as a potential trigger for seismic activity, as it can lubricate faults, thereby reactivating them and inducing earthquakes (Dou et al, 2020a;Dou et al, 2020b;Shang et al, 2020). Statistics show a notable surge in earthquake frequency across the central and eastern United States following the intensification of shale gas development (van der Baan and Calixto, 2017;Canales et al, 2022). In regions and during periods with a lot of shale gas development activities, the frequency of earthquakes is significantly higher than that of other regions.…”