The rise and fall of transit ridership across Canada: Understanding the determinants

Diab, Ehab; Kasraian, Dena; Miller, Eric J.; Shalaby, Amer

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.07.002

Cited by 40 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The implication of this result is that ride-hailing services play a complementary role in the generation of public transit trips. This is consistent with the results of ( 17 ), who found that the presence of Uber within the jurisdiction of a large transit agency has a small positive impact on ridership. A similar result was observed for Model B, which would imply that DAs that generate more transit trips also generate more ride-hailing trips.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…One approach to mitigating this issue is the use of a binary dummy variable to represent the presence of a ride-hailing service in the study area. This is seen in ( 16 ) who studied transit ridership in 25 North American cities over a 14-year period, and ( 17 ) who studied the transit ridership of 103 Canadian agencies between 2002 and 2016. Another approach to incorporating ride-hailing demand into models of transit ridership is the use of a different set of information that can act as a proxy for ride-hailing demand.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Specifically, the length of the bus, streetcar, and subway routes, as well as the number of transit stops, within a 400 and 800 m radius of each centroid were calculated. The inclusion of these variables follows the work presented in studies such as ( 16 , 17 ) who have found that the vehicle revenue kilometers provided by transit agencies influence ridership. The zone-level socio-demographic attributes were obtained from the 2016 Canadian Census.…”

Section: Data Description and Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the Influence of Land Use and Transit Network Attributes on the Generation of, and Relationship between, the Demand for Public Transit and Ride-Hailing Services in Toronto

Loa

Hossain

Habib

2020

Transportation Research Record

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In North American cities, the growing use of ride-hailing services, such as Uber and Lyft, has occurred at a time when public transit ridership has either stagnated or declined. Previous studies on the topic have found that the relationship between ride-hailing and public transit services tends to be context-specific in nature. In some cases, ride-hailing has been shown to complement public transit, while, in others, it can be a substitute. This paper takes an integrated approach to modeling the generation of demand for ride-hailing and public transit services, using trip-level ride-hailing data and data from a regional household travel survey. In addition, the relationship between the demand for ride-hailing and transit services is also explored. This paper uses the bivariate ordered probit model and the recursive regression model to study the role that built environment and socio-demographic attributes play in the generation of transit and ride-hailing demand. The model results reveal that there are several built environment attributes, such as transit accessibility and the density of commercial and recreational establishments, that influence the generation of both ride-hailing and transit demand. The results also indicate that the relationship between ride-hailing and transit services tends to be more complementary than substitutive in nature. This does not, however, mean that ride-hailing services are never used as a substitute for public transit in Toronto. The results of this study aim to provide transit agencies with a means of identifying locations where ridership may be threatened by ride-hailing services.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Data Description and Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the Influence of Land Use and Transit Network Attributes on the Generation of, and Relationship between, the Demand for Public Transit and Ride-Hailing Services in Toronto

Loa

Hossain

Habib

2020

Transportation Research Record

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“…The orientation of North American transit systems around commuting makes telecommuting a threat to transit's post-COVID-19 recovery. Even before the pandemic, telecommuting correlated negatively with transit ridership across Canada (27). In the United States, researchers estimate that transit commuting may decline by roughly 40% after the pandemic, with half of this decline attributable to a reduction in commute frequency (3).…”

Section: Telecommutingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Facing the future of transit ridership: which riders bought a car; who is planning on riding less?

Palm¹,

Allen²,

Zhang³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Public transit agencies face a transformed landscape of rider demand and political support as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. We explore people’s motivations for returning to or avoiding public transit a year into the pandemic. We draw on a March 2021 follow up survey of over 1,900 people who rode transit regularly prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto and Vancouver, Canada, and who took part in a prior survey on the topic in May, 2020. We model how transit demand has changed due to the pandemic, and investigate how this relates to changes in automobile ownership and its desirability. We find that pre-COVID frequent transit users between the ages of 18-29, a part of the so-called “Gen Z,” and recent immigrants are more attracted to driving due to the pandemic, with the latter group more likely to have actually purchased a vehicle. Getting COVID-19 or living with someone who did is also a strong and positive predictor of buying a car and anticipating less transit use after the pandemic. Our results suggest that COVID-19 heightened the attractiveness of auto ownership among transit riders likely to eventually purchase cars anyways (immigrants, twentysomethings), at least in the North American context. We also conclude that getting COVID-19 or living with someone who did is a significant and positive predictor of having bought a car. Future research should consider how the experiencing of having COVID-19 has transformed some travelers’ views, values, and behaviour.

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“…Public transit is the backbone of the transport network and linchpin of the economy in any major world city. Unfortunately, there has been a declining trend in transit ridership across Canada and the U.S.A. in recent years and an upward trend in automobile use and road congestion, with severe impacts on air quality and road safety ( 1 ). Reversing these trends requires providing high quality and reliable transit service with minimal service interruption.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Bus Bridging Effectiveness on the Operational Resilience of the Subway Service in Toronto

Itani

Shalaby

2021

Transportation Research Record

Self Cite

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Unplanned rail disruptions result in substantial delays to passengers and severe effects on the economy of a large city like Toronto. While bus bridging has been a widely adopted method to replace the subway service in such events, its effect on the operational resilience of the subway service is less often studied. This study assesses the resilience of the subway network of Toronto employing an optimal bus bridging strategy. First, subway incidents are categorized based on their characteristics using K-mean clustering analysis. The incidents are then grouped based on the performance of optimal bus bridging plans. Classification and regression tree analysis is used for this task, employing two metrics: the total user delay and total number of shuttle buses under the optimal bridging scenario. Queueing and optimization models developed previously by the University of Toronto are used to determine and simulate the optimal bus bridging plans of a sample of incidents. The severity of unplanned disruptions is finally demonstrated using a severity scale and the effect of incident duration uncertainty is analyzed. The results show that along the congested city alignments, where the capacity of the roads and stations is limited, the bus bridging service is often insufficient to replace the train service. However, it could be a good alternative in uncongested subway segments where the available street capacity is relatively high, allowing large bus volumes to serve the corridor. This model is easily applicable to different rail systems and it could assess other systems to produce better bridging plans.

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The rise and fall of transit ridership across Canada: Understanding the determinants

Cited by 40 publications

References 31 publications

On the Influence of Land Use and Transit Network Attributes on the Generation of, and Relationship between, the Demand for Public Transit and Ride-Hailing Services in Toronto

On the Influence of Land Use and Transit Network Attributes on the Generation of, and Relationship between, the Demand for Public Transit and Ride-Hailing Services in Toronto

Facing the future of transit ridership: which riders bought a car; who is planning on riding less?

Assessing the Bus Bridging Effectiveness on the Operational Resilience of the Subway Service in Toronto

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