The Ripple Effects of Climate Change on Migration Patterns

Abstract

This chapter rigorously examines the influence of climate change on migration dynamics from the Northern Triangle countries—Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala—towards the southern Mexican and United States borders, analyzed through a national security lens. Utilizing comprehensive analyses of principal diagnostics from the World Bank, the International Organization for Migration, and the United States’ strategic climate change response, it anticipates the continuation of climate-induced migration due to socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing climate change. This investigation uniquely evaluates climate migration, integrating a multidisciplinary approach that includes aspects of migration, security, climate change, and development, highlighting the significant impact of climate change on regional mobility trends expected to persist. Despite these challenges, the prioritization of climate change effects in migrant-origin countries remains minimal, overshadowed by the economic benefits of emigration, particularly through international remittances. The chapter also critiques the current lack of comprehensive international or regional policies to mitigate this migration, despite the strategic efforts by the United States to address the issue from a national security perspective. It underscores the complexity of developing a cohesive policy framework that addresses climate change, migration, rights, and employment, emphasizing the necessity of promoting labor mobility in the face of economic and environmental pressures.