The response of water balance components to land cover change based on hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis in the Upper Awash Basin

Shawul, Alemayehu A.; Chakma, Sumedha; Melesse, Assefa M.

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100640

Cited by 63 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The findings of this study on the relative contribution of land cover and climate changes are in agreement with previous studies reported in the upper Awash basin [48] and in Heihe River basin [22]. Several studies have reported that surface runoff is more sensitive to land cover change than to climate change [4,34,71].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Vegetation cover influences groundwater recharge as it promotes infiltration and percolation by modifying soil structure and by slowing down surface flow. This finding is in line with Shawul et al [48] who reported strong correlations between vegetation cover and groundwater recharge. The findings of this study is consistent with previous studies [22,70,71].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a semi-distributed process-based hydrological model that was developed to predict the impacts of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields [45]. It is now widely used for various applications throughout the world including in the Blue Nile basin for water balance studies, soil erosion, land cover or climate change impact assessment [46,47,48]. The capability of SWAT to characterize hydrologic responses of a basin for various land-use and climate change scenarios was well documented [1,3,49,50].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

Kabite¹,

Muleta²,

Gessesse³

2020

Preprint

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Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

Kabite¹,

Muleta²,

Gessesse³

2020

Preprint

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“…For instance, Gashaw et al [74] in Andessa catchment, Ethiopia concluded that the changes in land use have reduced groundwater flow and increased surface runoff. Shawul et al [18] also showed an increased surface runoff and decline of groundwater between 1974-2014 in upper Awash basin was attributed by the LULCCs of the catchment. However, the study reported that the magnitude of the groundwater fluctuation is much less compared to the surface runoff.…”

Section: Impacts Of Land Use/land Cover Changementioning

confidence: 94%

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Dibaba

Demissie

Miegel

2020

Water

117

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Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

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“…It has both local, regional and global occurrence and is reported to continue in the future [14]. It potentially has large impacts on water resources; thus, it is important to understand the possible effects of LC changes on the runoff variability and possible measures [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Said

Hyandye

Mjemah

et al. 2021

Earth

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This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning.

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The response of water balance components to land cover change based on hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis in the Upper Awash Basin

Cited by 63 publications

References 59 publications

Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

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