The response of vital rates to harvest fluctuations in pre-industrial Sweden

Edvinsson, Rodney

doi:10.1007/s11698-016-0144-7

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…should therefore be removed when assessing the magnitude of the preventive check. Third, using an error correction mechanism framework with contemporaneous effects, our investigation is the first to estimate the strength of the preventive check both in the long term and the short term; recent studies on other countries focused on either longterm (Klemp and Møller 2016:858;Møller and Sharp 2014:129) or short-term elasticities (e.g., Edvinsson 2017;Fernihough 2013).…”

Section: The Preventive Checkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A first generation of studies, published mostly in the 1980s, studied mainly the short-term bivariate relationships between vital events or vital rates and grain prices as a proxy for income (e.g., Galloway 1988;Lee 1981;Weir 1984). More recent work, by contrast, has made use of new or improved data sets of vital rates and real wages and has employed multivariate time series methods-most notably, vector autoregression (VAR) and structural time series analysis-to study Malthusian relationships from a systemic perspective (e.g., Edvinsson 2017;Fernihough 2013;Lee and Anderson 2002;Møller and Sharp 2014;Nicolini 2007). This change in methodology has also led to a greater attention for structural, long-term interaction between demographic and economic variables as opposed to short-term relationships.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870

Pfister

Fertig

2020

Demography

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This study draws on a new data set of vital rates and real wages to explore short-term and long-term behavior of the preventive and positive checks in a major economy of premodern mainland Europe. Four results stand out. First, the preventive check was fairly stable throughout the period 1730–1870; its magnitude of 0.2 to 0.35 was comparable with that of England, northern and central Italy, and Sweden. Second, the eighteenth century was characterized by Malthusian disequilibrium in that there was no long-term relationship between the crude death rate and the real wage, whereas the crude death rate’s instantaneous response to income changes was a substantial –0.4. Third, the short-term positive check may have weakened over the eighteenth century and largely disappeared in the 1810s. The diversification of food risk resulting from the spread of potato cultivation, market integration, and the development of the nonagricultural sectors are potential explanations of the demise and disappearance of the positive check. Fourth, between the 1810s and the 1860s, vital rates and the real wage were stationary, which is consistent with a post-Malthusian regime in which technological progress depended on population size. The 1810s marked the time when Germany transited from a Malthusian regime in disequilibrium to the post-Malthusian era.

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Section: The Preventive Checkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870

Pfister

Fertig

2020

Demography

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“…As a short-term relation, however, GDP per capita growth seems to have affected mortality even before the epidemiological transition, since this effect can be found to prevail in the early English data sample (see figure 3.7, left graph) and to wear off in the late sample (see figure 3.7, right graph). Some authors (Nicolini 2007;Crafts and Mills 2009;Pfister and Fertig 2010;Fernihough 2012;Herzer et al 2012;Moller and Sharp 2014;Rathke and Sarferaz 2014;Edvinsson 2017) have argued in favour of complementing "Malthusian effects" in the sense that the PoP in its tendency to raise population not only enhances fertility, but at the same time operates towards lower mortality. These authors regard the statistically significant positive effect of GDP per capita growth on birth rate as evidence of "preventive checks" in general, which are not to be confused with the GPC.…”

Section: A Critical Note On the Prevailing Measurement Of Preventive mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Var Evaluation of Classical Growth Theory

Lueger¹

2018

Proceedings of the IISES Annual Conference, Sevilla, Spain

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Over the past two decades, there have been numerous attempts in economic theory to model the historical regime of a Malthusian trap as well as the transition to growth in one coherent framework, or in other words, a unified growth theory. However, in most of these models, an important effect suggested by Malthus has been frequently omitted. By including what he had called "the great preventive check" in the traditional Malthusian model which is based on the principle of population, the principle of diminishing returns and the principle of labour division, the transition can be modelled in a very simple dynamic macroeconomic framework. The aim of this paper is to first construct and calibrate the suggested classical model and to eventually employ a conventional VAR-Method to provide evidence of the above principles using country-specific annual historical data on crude birth rate, crude death rate and GDP per capita growth rate. As a result, it is argued that emerging economies follow a universal macroeconomic pattern of development. A decreasing death rate is succeeded by a decreasing birth rate which at the same time induces GDP per capita to rise sustainably. The correspondingly advanced microeconomic theory suggests that increasing life expectancy tends to create a demographic structure that is much less prone to overpopulation.

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“…On Scandinavia, see Bengtsson and Dribe, ‘New evidence’; Dribe, Olsson, and Svensson, ‘Agricultural revolution’; Edvinsson, ‘Vital rates’; Klemp and Møller, ‘Post‐Malthusian dynamics’; Lagerlöf, ‘Malthus’. As examples of the broader literature, also see Nicolini, ‘Malthus’; Crafts and Mills, ‘Malthus’.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…See, for example, Bengtsson and Dribe, ‘New evidence’; Dribe et al., ‘Agricultural revolution’; Edvinsson, ‘Vital rates’; Klemp and Møller, ‘Post‐Malthusian dynamics’; Lagerlöf, ‘Malthus’.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Adopting a new technology: potatoes and population growth in the periphery

Berger

2018

The Economic History Review

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Sweden's population doubled in size between 1750 and 1850 despite a century of stagnating per capita incomes and real wages, which has led many historians to attribute the population explosion to the introduction of the potato. This article provides the first systematic evidence on the potato's contribution to Swedish living standards and population growth. Potatoes at least doubled output per acre, and welfare ratios that account for potato consumption imply that they raised living standards significantly for labourers. Estimates that exploit regional differences in the suitability of land for cultivating potatoes further show that cities, counties, and rural parishes with more land suitable for potato cultivation experienced a sharp relative acceleration in population growth as the potato spread in the early nineteenth century. An expansion of the population was mainly driven by relative increases in fertility and, consistent with Malthusian predictions, there was no long‐run impact on per capita incomes. According to these estimates, the introduction and spread of the potato can account for one‐tenth of population growth between 1800 and 1850, thus suggesting that it was an important catalyst for the Swedish population explosion.

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The response of vital rates to harvest fluctuations in pre-industrial Sweden

Cited by 11 publications

References 36 publications

From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870

From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870

A Var Evaluation of Classical Growth Theory

Adopting a new technology: potatoes and population growth in the periphery

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