The response of the suspended sediment load of the headwaters of the Brahmaputra River to climate change: Quantitative attribution to the effects of hydrological, cryospheric and vegetation controls

Shi, Xiaonan; Zhang, Fan; Lu, Xixi; Zhang, Yueguan; Wang, Guanxing; Wang, Li; Jagirani, Muhammad Dodo; Wang, Tao; Piao, Shilong

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103753

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…As HMA has overall been getting warmer and wetter over the past decades 4,9 , both runoff and fluvial sediment yields have been increasing, the latter in response to expanding erodible landscapes, increasing thermally and pluvially-driven sediment sources, and increasing rainfall erosivity and sediment transport capacity 9,[89][90][91][92] . Observations from 28 quasi-pristine headwater catchments in HMA indicate that their annual fluvial sediment yields have increased at an average rate of ~13% per decade (notwithstanding substantial sediment storage along river pathways 93 ) (Fig.…”

Section: Erosion and Sediment Fluxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability

Walling

et al. 2022

Nat. Geosci.

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Global warming-induced melting and thawing of the cryosphere are severely altering the volume and timing of water supplied from High Mountain Asia (HMA), adversely affecting downstream food and energy systems relied upon by billions of people. The construction of more reservoirs designed to regulate streamflow and produce hydropower is a critical part of strategies for adapting to these changes. However, these projects are vulnerable to a complex set of interacting processes that are destabilizing landscapes throughout the region. Ranging in severity and the pace of change, these processes include glacial retreat and detachments, permafrost thaw and associated landslides, rock-ice avalanches, debris flows, and outburst floods from glacial lakes and landslide-dammed lakes.The end result is large amounts of sediment being mobilized that can fill up reservoirs, cause dam failure, and degrade power turbines. Here, we recommend forward-looking design and maintenance measures and sustainable sediment management solutions that can help transition towards climate change-resilient dams and reservoirs in HMA, in large part based on improved monitoring and prediction of compound and cascading hazards.

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Section: Erosion and Sediment Fluxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 2016 Gongbatongsha GLOF mobilized channel-defining boulders and produced a very peak of sediment flux in a Himalaya river 77 . Extreme rainfall events can also abruptly increase sediment loads, as shown in the headwaters of the Yangtze 89 and Brahmaputra 92 .…”

Section: Erosion and Sediment Fluxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability

Walling

et al. 2022

Nat. Geosci.

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“…Various methods have been used to investigate the impact of climate change and human activities on hydrologic processes in karst regions up to now, including traditional empirical methods, experimental methods and hydrological models (Feng et al, 2016; Shi et al, 2022). Although these methods can demonstrate the relationship between latent factors and hydrologic processes, the hydrologic processes in karst basins are very complex, making it difficult for traditional methods to thoroughly analyse the mediation effect between latent factors and hydrologic processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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A thorough understanding of the complex response of hydrologic processes to latent factors is of great significance for regional soil erosion and water resources management. However, what kind of mediation effect exists between hydrologic processes and latent factors is not yet clear, especially in heterogeneous karst regions. In this study, the elasticity coefficient method and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS‐SEM) were used to investigate the mechanism of latent factors on hydrologic processes in karst basins and to explore the mediation effect between latent factors and hydrologic processes. The results show that the runoff of Yeji River Basin decreased during 1997–2004, but increased or stabilized since 2005. On the monthly scale, the runoff in July and December showed an ‘inverted V‐shaped’ change. Both elasticity coefficient method and PLS‐SEM showed that climate change contributed the most to runoff (direct effect accounted for 37.94% ~ 61.41%). In PLS‐SEM, the total effect sizes of latent factors on runoff were as follows: climate change (0.751 ~ 0.963) > vegetation (0.296 ~ 0.740) > karst characteristics factors (KCF) (−0.454 ~ −0.563) > human activities (−0.036 ~ −0.528) > land use and cover change (LUCC) (−0.036 ~ −0.205). In the typical karst basin, two mediation pathways have been determined: human activities‐vegetation/LUCC‐runoff, where vegetation and LUCC had a mediation effect of relationships between human activities and runoff; climate change‐KCF‐runoff, where KCF had a mediation effect of relationships between climate change and runoff. Moreover, PLS‐SEM is a preferred method to decouple the complex responses of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins to climate change and human activities than the elasticity coefficient method. This study conducted further research and exploration on the mechanism of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins, and provided valuable theoretical references for grassroots water managers to cope with water resources management under the context of future climate change.

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“…The effectiveness of estimations is obtained by taking into account all factors involved in the emergence of the hazard, including land use that changes the streamflow characteristics. The statistical or the quantitative methods have demonstrated a change in hydrological data (Shi et al, 2022). These changes can have devastating consequences aggravating flood hazard, because of uncertainty in new forms or intensity of hazard.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of social vulnerability assessment on flood risk management processes in the urban environment in Annaba province

Kesmia,

Zennir,

Dovbash

et al. 2023

Journ. Geol., Geogr., and Geoec..

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Considering that flood risk is one of the greatest natural hazards threatening human beings, the standard approach of flood risk management is mostly based on structural mea- sures giving less importance to uncertainty as a main factor. The robustness leads frequently to failures in the structural measures as a factor of uncertainty, in addition to other factors like changes in hazard comportment. The current study represents an evaluation of flood policy in Annaba city, how decision-makers deal with this issue, and how to reduce exposure and susceptibility factors. The evaluation is based on the study of flood risk components, hazard amount, vulnerability degree and people’s perception of flood risk. The study also assesses how people handle flood risk and their capability to cope with extreme events. A survey method was used to assess the potential risks as it involves analyzing different flood risk aspects by conducting a survey through questioning local residents. We can state that exposure is highly affected by the number and density of the population characterized by the high probability of human and material losses in the study area. On the other hand, the vulnerability operates on a smaller scale that increases the capacity of flood risk to affect humans and other components of the environment. This study affirms that the uncertainty in hazard determination forecasting and misevaluation of social vulnerability leads inevitably to devastating consequences in the case of an exceptional event. Moreover, the behaviour of citizens during and after disaster phases can have a key role in flood risk management. Taking into consideration complexities related to social behaviour enhances the outcome of scenarios that lead consequently to more realistic forecasting. These findings concluded that the risk has always existed, i.e., the notion of «zero risk» never exists by natural laws. Knowing that risk management is the only way to deal with such issues, we highlight the importance of urban governance that integrates all actors without exclusion, based on a partnership aimed at obtaining optimal results. The essential principle of this mode of management is the reduction of economic and human losses.

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The response of the suspended sediment load of the headwaters of the Brahmaputra River to climate change: Quantitative attribution to the effects of hydrological, cryospheric and vegetation controls

Cited by 14 publications

References 61 publications

High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability

High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Impact of social vulnerability assessment on flood risk management processes in the urban environment in Annaba province

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