The response of the climate system to the indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol

Williams, K. D.; Jones, Andrew K.; Roberts, David L.; Senior, C. A.; Woodage, Margaret J.

doi:10.1007/s003820100150

Cited by 114 publications

(120 citation statements)

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“…Kaufman and Chou (1993), Jones et al (1994), Boucher and Lohmann (1995), Chuang et al (1997, Lohmann and Feichter (1997), Rotstayn (1999), Lohmann et al (2000), Kiehl et al (2000), Jones et al (2001), Williams et al (2001), Ghan et al (2001), Rotstayn and Penner (2001), Chuang et al (2002), Kristjánsson (2002), Rotstayn and Liu (2003) Lohmann and Feichter (1997), Rotstayn (1999), Lohmann et al (2000), Jones et al (2001), Williams et al (2001), Ghan et al (2001), Lohmann and Lesins (2002), Menon et al (2002), Kristjánsson (2002), Peng and Lohmann (2003), Kristjánsson et al (2005) Murphy et al (2009) …”

Section: A1 Cloud Albedo Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define properly. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results, we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents, and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models.

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Section: A1 Cloud Albedo Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

et al. 2010

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“…The implications of this forcing have been studied with atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) for over a decade. In an atmospheric GCM with a slab ocean model, which includes no ocean dynamics, the hemispheric imbalance in radiative forcing induces large changes in tropical circulation (Rotstayn et al 2000, Williams et al 2001, Ming and Ramaswamy 2011. These can be summarised as a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, a weakening of the Hadley circulation in the northern hemisphere and a strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the southern hemisphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean circulation response to anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in the CSIRO-Mk3.6 climate model

Collier¹,

Rotstayn²,

Kim³

et al. 2013

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“…In terms of large-scale circulation, the dynamic effect of historically increasing aerosol has been described as a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (Rotstayn et al, 2000;Williams et al, 2001), or a weakening of the upward branch of the Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and a strengthening of the upward branch in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) . These changes can be explained as the response to a change in the meridional surface temperature gradient (Rotstayn et al, 2000;Williams et al, 2001), or the inter-hemispheric asymmetry in aerosol forcing, for which the atmospheric circulation partially compensates (Kang et al, 2009;Ming and Ramaswamy, 2011;Chiang and Friedman, 2012).…”

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Projected effects of declining aerosols in RCP4.5: unmasking global warming?

et al. 2013

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Abstract. All the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) include declining aerosol emissions during the 21st century, but the effects of these declines on climate projections have had little attention. Here we assess the global and hemispheric-scale effects of declining anthropogenic aerosols in RCP4.5 in CSIRO-Mk3.6, a model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results from this model are then compared with those from other CMIP5 models.We calculate the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF, including indirect effects) in CSIRO-Mk3.6 relative to 1850, using a series of atmospheric simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SST). Global-mean aerosol ERF at the top of the atmosphere is most negative in 2005 (−1.47 W m −2 ). Between 2005 and 2100 it increases by 1.46 W m −2 , i.e., it approximately returns to 1850 levels. Although increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and declining aerosols both exert a positive ERF at the top of the atmosphere during the 21st century, they have opposing effects on radiative heating of the atmosphere: increasing GHGs warm the atmosphere, whereas declining aerosols cool the atmosphere due to reduced absorption of shortwave radiation by black carbon (BC).We then compare two projections for 2006-2100, using the coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the model. One (RCP45) follows the usual RCP4.5; the other (RCP45A2005) has identical forcing, except that emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and precursors are fixed at 2005 levels. The globalmean surface warming in RCP45 is 2.3 • C per 95 yr, of which almost half (1.1 • C) is caused by declining aerosols. The warming due to declining aerosols is almost twice as strong in the Northern Hemisphere as in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas that due to increasing GHGs is similar in the two hemispheres.For precipitation changes, the effects of declining aerosols are larger than those of increasing GHGs due to decreasing atmospheric absorption by black carbon: 63 % of the projected global-mean precipitation increase of 0.16 mm per day is caused by declining aerosols. In the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation increases by 0.29 mm per day, of which 72 % is caused by declining aerosols.Comparing 13 CMIP5 models, we find a correlation of -0.54 (significant at 5 %) between aerosol ERF in the present climate and projected global-mean surface warming in RCP4.5; thus, models that have more negative aerosol ERF in the present climate tend to project stronger warming during 2006-2100. A similar correlation (-0.56) is found between aerosol ERF and projected changes in global-mean precipitation.These results suggest that aerosol forcing substantially modulates projected climate response in RCP4.5. In some respects, the effects of declining aerosols are quite distinct from those of increasing GHGs. Systematic efforts are needed to better quantify the role of declining aerosols in climate projections.

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The response of the climate system to the indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol

Cited by 114 publications

References 0 publications

Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

Ocean circulation response to anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in the CSIRO-Mk3.6 climate model

Projected effects of declining aerosols in RCP4.5: unmasking global warming?

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