The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4091-9

Cited by 40 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 115 publications

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“…Under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions, we may expect a 26% increase in the number of severe tropical cyclones with central pressures <970 hPa (greater than Category 1 on SS scale). In a more recent study, examining the response of land-falling TC characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia, Parker et al (2018) demonstrated a consistent response of increasing TC intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). McInnes et al (2015) concluded that TCs in northern Australia are projected with medium confidence to become less frequent with an increase in the proportion of the most intense storms.…”

Section: Climate Change Projections For the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In a more recent study, examining the response of land‐falling TC characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia, Parker et al. () demonstrated a consistent response of increasing TC intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5–10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). McInnes et al.…”

Section: Study Area High‐energy Storm Characteristics and Ecologicalmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Interactions Between Climate Change Other Change Drivers Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More intense TCs and high rainfall (river plume) events negatively affecting coral reefs and seagrass communities (Parker et al 2018). More intense TCs and high rainfall events negatively affecting forests and other land cover and land use types (Parker et al 2018), including increased degradation of forest remnants through weed invasion and changes in forest succession (Murphy and Metcalfe 2016). Changes in structure and composition of rain forests in favor of taxa more resilient to warming (Lugo 2008, Turton 2013, Murphy et al 2014, and decline and extinction of taxa in cool uplands (Williams et al 2003), leading to increased vulnerability to HES events Rising sea level Many coral reefs will be unable to keep growing fast enough to keep up with rising sea levels, leaving coastlines and low-lying islands exposed to increased erosion, flooding risk (Perry et al 2018), and storm surge energy during TCs (McLeod andSalm 2006, Paice andChambers 2016).…”

Section: Interactions Between Climate Change Other Change Drivers Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reef‐to‐ridge ecological perspectives of high‐energy storm events in northeast Australia

Turton

2019

Ecosphere

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the dominant high-energy storm (HES) events affecting marine, coastal, and terrestrial ecosystems in northeast Australia. My study provides the first synthetic analysis of ecological effects of TCs on key ecosystems along a reef-to-ridge gradient in the region. This gradient includes outer and mid-shelf, and nearshore coral reefs, seagrass communities, mangrove forests, and lowland, and upland rain forests. Firstly, I synthesize published research on ecological effects of HES events on natural ecosystems along the reef-to-ridge gradient, with a particular focus on evaluating their ecological resistance and resilience to HES events. Secondly, utilizing two case studies, I compare and contrast the large-scale wind energy effects of two severe tropical cyclones (TC Larry and TC Yasi) on natural ecosystems along their respective reef-to-ridge gradients, with a focus on damage patterns and early stages of recovery for key ecosystems. Finally, I consider the likely effects of climate change on future HES events, and how these may affect the resistance and resilience of ecosystems along the reef-to-ridge gradient. Damage patterns for ecosystems along the reef-to-ridge gradient for both TCs were largely determined by distance from the TC track, side of track, shelf position in the case of reefs, topography in the case of forests, forest type, and forest integrity (contiguous vs. fragmented). Major structural damage to coral reefs and contiguous rain forests after both TCs was patchy, suggesting some degree of larger-scale resistance of these ecosystems to HES events. In the case of littoral forests, small forest remnants, regrowth forests, and riparian forests much lower levels of resistance to high-energy winds were observed, due to patch size and edge effects. Apart from mangroves, most intact ecosystems along the reef-to-ridge gradient have shown early stages of recovery. However, small forests remnants and riparian forests in the agricultural matrix had lower levels of recovery compared with areas of contiguous forest. Anthropogenic climate change may reduce the resistance and resilience of ecosystems along the reef-to-ridge gradient to cope with future HES events, due to increased wind and wave energy, higher storm surges, higher intensity rainfall, and larger river plume events.

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Section: Climate Change Projections For the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Study Area High‐energy Storm Characteristics and Ecologicalmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Interactions Between Climate Change Other Change Drivers Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Interactions Between Climate Change Other Change Drivers Amentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Reef‐to‐ridge ecological perspectives of high‐energy storm events in northeast Australia

Turton

2019

Ecosphere

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“…Tropical cyclones can also be associated with outbreaks of allergic disease as a result of the prolific growth of mould from flooding and water-damaged dwellings, as occurred in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina. 32 With such extreme meteorological events projected to increase in frequency and/or severity in the future [33][34][35] , it is to be expected that their interactions with allergens and allergic diseases may change accordingly.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk

Beggs

2018

Pub Health Res Pract

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Objectives: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are important and potentially serious in Australia. Australia is highly vulnerable to such impacts because of its very high prevalence of allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, and allergic sensitisation to environmental allergens such as certain pollens and fungal spores. This article aims to review published research on the impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases from an Australian perspective. Methods: Research on climate change, allergens and allergy was reviewed. Recent global assessments of the topic were consulted, and supplemented with database searches to identify research published since the assessments were done, as well as research with an Australian focus. The databases used were Web of Science and Scopus. Only research published since the year 2000 was included. Results: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are many and varied. Impacts on pollen include effects on pollen production and atmospheric pollen concentration, pollen seasonality, pollen allergenicity, and the dispersion and spatial distribution of pollen. Similarly, there is evidence for effects on fungal spore production, seasonality and allergenicity. There are also likely effects on indoor moisture and mould growth. Beyond these respiratory allergens, climate change may also affect food allergens, stinging insect allergens and contact allergens. All these changes could affect allergic diseases, in particular allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis. Conclusions: A large and sophisticated body of research exists from which to gauge both current and potential future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases. However, most, if not all, of this is from outside Australia. Australian-focused research is therefore urgently needed. Australia's vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change on allergic diseases is compounded by the precarious nature of aeroallergen monitoring, reporting and forecasting in this country. But Australia has an impressive wealth of relevant experience and expertise, and has the potential to address the challenge of both current and future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases.

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Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones: A critical analysis of regional characteristics

Pillay

Fitchett

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The destructive nature of tropical cyclones poses a risk to the regions where they occur during and after landfall. Southern hemisphere countries are usually more vulnerable to these risks and impacts due to their lower adaptive capacity. Research for the northern hemisphere has comprehensively explored the nature of tropical cyclones. This information has since been applied to long-term adaptation plans and short-term evacuation plans. This study interrogates the characteristics and nature of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones and critically explores their differences to Northern Hemisphere storm characteristics. The differences found between the hemispheric storm activities include seasonality, number of storms and the latitudinal position at which these storms undergo genesis and intensification. Similarities were found in storm intensity, which was observed to increase with the time taken to reach maximum lifetime intensity. Higher sea surface temperatures were similarly found to be a major factor associated with increased intensity and lifetime of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone seasonality is also centred around the warmer months within each hemisphere. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere the tropical cyclone seasonal length indicates no increase. The magnitude of sea surface temperature increase is also lower in the Northern Hemisphere. These fundamental links observed with temperature in both hemispheres implicates climate warming and its impact on tropical cyclones in both hemispheres, regardless of their seasonality and frequency.

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The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

Cited by 40 publications

References 115 publications

Reef‐to‐ridge ecological perspectives of high‐energy storm events in northeast Australia

Reef‐to‐ridge ecological perspectives of high‐energy storm events in northeast Australia

Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones: A critical analysis of regional characteristics

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