The Resilience of Public Policies in Economic Development

Abstract

This paper studies the resilience of public policies that governments design for catalyzing economic development. This property depends on the extent to which behavioral heuristics and spillover effects allow policymakers to attain their original goals when a particular policy cannot be funded as originally planned. This scenario takes place, for example, when unanticipated events such as natural disasters or political turmoil obstruct the use of resources to advance certain policy issues, e.g., infrastructure or labor reforms. Here, we analyze how the adaptive capacity of the policy-making process generates resilience in the face of disruptions. In order to estimate the allocation of resources across policies, we employ a computational model that accounts for diverse social mechanisms, for example, coevolutionary learning and network interdependencies. In our simulations, we use a data set of 117 countries on 79 development indicators over an 11-year period. Then, we calculate a resilience score corresponding to each development indicator via counter-factual analysis of policy disruptions. Next, we assess whether some development strategies produce resilient/fragile policy profiles. Finally, by studying the relationship between policy resilience and policy priority, we determine which issues are bottlenecks to economic development.

Estimating Networks of Sustainable Development Goals

“…Some progress has been made in this vein of research through policy priority inference [67,68]. Starting with a set of exogenous objectives, indicators' initial values, and an estimated network of structural-dependencies, the model generates endogenous policy priorities that can be used to make causal inference in a variety of topics such as policy resilience [69], ex-ante policy evaluation [70], policy coherence [71], and corruption [74]. 44 In this framework, the purpose of the network is only to specify how the SDG indicators co-evolve once certain variations are induced by the adaptation of the budgetary allocations.…”

Public policy for housing development: a case study on housing development in Semarang Regency - Indonesia

“…However, the country still faces obstacles such as uncontrolled urban expansion, poor management and a lack of spatial urban planning systems. Castañeda and Guerrero (2018) used 79 development indicators from 177 countries to prove that public policy was designed by the government to accelerate economic development. However, the implementation of public policy was faced by obstacles such as natural disasters or political turmoil regularly.…”

“…Cazacova et al (2010) and Antczak (2017) proved that urban areas offered important opportunities for economic development and expansion of access to basic services such as health, education and housing. However, there were still problems faced such as uncontrolled urban expansion, poor management and a lack of spatial urban planning systems (Castañeda & Guerrero, 2018;Ogrodowczyk, 2015;Saifullah, 2016;Seo & Kwon, 2017).…”

“…Slightly different from Mr. SHD and Mrs. DW, the proposal for location for Mr. HM's housing could be given a recommendation by considering that the existing conditions should be in the form of plantation and integrated with existing settlements, with a slope of 0-8%. Castañeda and Guerrero (2018), Antczak (2017) and Cazacova et al (2010) proved that public policy was designed to accelerate economic development and expand access to basic services for the community. However, the implementation of public policies often faced obstacles such as uncontrolled urban expansion, poor management, lack of spatial urban planning systems, and lack of guarantees of community property rights (Antczak, 2017;Gerber & Hartmann, 2017;Holmes, 2013;Janssen-Jansen & Lloyd, 2012).…”

“…At least, there are 10 (ten) housing activities with such cases (Public Works Agency, 2018). This study refers to previous studies such as those conducted by Seo and Kwon (2017), Antczak (2017), Cesarski (2017), Ogrodowczyk (2015), Musa, Amirudin, Sofield, and Musa (2015), Davy (2014), Cooke and Moon (2015), Cazacova, Erdelhun, Saymanlier, Cazacova, and Ulbar (2010), and Castañeda and Guerrero (2018) which focus on public policy and housing development. Furthermore, this study also refers to studies by McCord et al (2014), Janssen-Jansen and Lloyd (2012), Holmes (2013), Gerber and Hartmann (2017) which focus on land use policies and ownership rights and researches by Saifullah (2016) and Nasriaty (2016) which focus on spatial planning and settlement development policies.…”