The reproductive number R₀ of COVID-19 based on estimate of a statistical time delay dynamical system

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 based on Wallinga and Lipsitch framework [11] and a novel statistical time delay dynamic system. We use the observed data reported in CCDC's paper to estimate distribution of the generation interval of the infection and apply the simulation results from the time delay dynamic system as well as released data from CCDC to fit the growth rate. The conclusion is: Based our Fudan-CCDC model, the growth rate r of COVID-19 is almost in [0.30, 0.32] which is larger than the growth rate 0.1 estimated by CCDC [9], and the reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 is estimated by 3.25 ≤ R 0 ≤ 3.4 if we simply use R = 1 + r * T c with T c = 7.5, which is bigger than that of SARS. Some evolutions and predictions are listed.

COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth

“…Recently, many researchers devoted to more details about the analysis of the spread of epidemic. 14,15 Some paralleled results have shown that the reproductive number R0 estimated of COVID-19 is bigger than that of SARS based on different models. [16][17][18] With the limited number of data points and the complexity of the real situation, a straightforward model is expected to work better (see Discussion).…”

Patterns of the COVID19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws

“…A number of studies have been performed that investigated the kinetics of coronavirus spread through human populations. The pattern of virus spread was found to be approximately exponential, at least during the early stages of virus spread [6,7], and importantly, the basic reproductive ratio of the virus has been estimated [8,9,10,11]. The implementation of social distancing measures are expected to have a significant impact on the virus spread kinetics [5], which has been observed in some Asian countries, such as China [12].…”

COVID-19 in Singapore: Another story of success

“…We introduce our model by adding a source term on the discrete version of the FUDAN-CCDC model that we proposed recently in [26]: for t > t 0 ,…”

“…REMARK 1. Comparing with the FUDAN-CCDC model in [26], the source term I s (t) is introduced here, which is important since we think that the imported infected people in Singapore are from China or other counties. We recently found that the data could be fitted well only when the imported cases were carefully considered, and moreover the final infected numbers would be very different.…”

“…The TDD-NCP model later was further developed by considering the distribution of the generation interval of the infection obtained from China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) [20], to estimate the basic reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 based on Wallinga and Lipsitch's framework [29]. This model was named 2 A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T Accepted manuscript to appear in IJMI Fudan-CCDC model [26,25]. The Fudan-CCDC model revealed the importance of early and effective quarantine measures.…”