The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership

Abstract

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.

Modeling the gameplay actions of elite volleyball players and teams based on statistical match reports

“…Modeling in sports has emerged as a pivotal instrument for performance analysis and optimization. A cluster of studies [30,31,32,33] harness mathematical and Bayesian frameworks to discern optimal team structures and dissect factors influencing performance in team-centric sports. Technological methodologies to evaluate athletes' agility and forecast match results are the focus of research [34,35].…”