The Relationship of Actual and Predicted Sales and Profits in New-Product Introductions

Tull, Donald S.

doi:10.1086/294974

Cited by 36 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…Based on the information just described, and in consultation with 3M management, we chose a 25% sales-forecast deflator to apply to all projected sales data in the analysis that follows. That deflator is consistent with 3M's historical experience and, given Tull's (1967) findings, should provide conservative sales projection figures. 2…”

Section: Analysis and Resultssupporting

confidence: 73%

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Performance Assessment of the Lead User Idea-Generation Process for New Product Development

Lilien

Morrison

Searls³

et al. 2002

Management Science

786

551

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Traditional idea generation techniques based on customer input usually collect information on new product needs from a random or typical set of customers. The "lead user process" takes a different approach. It collects information about both needs and solutions from users at the leading edges of the target market, as well as from users in other markets that face similar problems in a more extreme form. This paper reports on a natural experiment conducted within the 3M Company on the effect of the lead user (LU) idea-generation process relative to more traditional methods. 3M is known for its innovation capabilities--- and we find that the LU process appears to improve upon those capabilities. Annual sales of LU product ideas generated by the average LU project at 3M are conservatively projected to be $146 million after five years---more than eight times higher than forecast sales for the average contemporaneously conducted "traditional" project. Each funded LU project is projected to create a new major product line for a 3M division. As a direct result, divisions funding LU project ideas are projecting their highest rate of major product line generation in the past 50 years.new product development, lead users, idea generation

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Section: Analysis and Resultssupporting

confidence: 73%

“…Coller and Yoln (1998) review the literature on bias in accuracy of management earnings forecasts and find that little systematic bias occurs. Tull's (1967) model calculates $15 million in revenue as a level above which forecasts actually become pessimistic on average.…”

Section: Analysis and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Assessment of the Lead User Idea-Generation Process for New Product Development

Lilien

Morrison

Searls³

et al. 2002

Management Science

786

551

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Some such reasons given are overconfidence about the chances of own product success (Simon & Houghton, 2003;Tull, 1967), insufficient attention to competitive reaction (Zazac & Bazerman, 1991), and managerial ego (Schultz & Braun, 1998). Our results complement these behavioral reasons by showing how, although it may appear expost that too many firms introduced new products, the new product introduction decision of those firms could have been ex ante optimal.…”

Section: Contribution and Relationship To Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

New product introductions and failures under uncertainty

Tyagi

2006

International Journal of Research in Marketing

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“…The papers of Mark R. Greene (1969) and Donald R. Tull (1967), where marketing risks are separated from the problems associated with common market risks and their study, deserve special attention in this respect. Marketing risk researches are practically not separable from the researches on international business risk.…”

Section: Marketing Risk -Where Did It Come From?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Management of Marketing Risk and Efficiency / Integruotas Marketingo Rizikos Ir Efektyvumo Valdymas

Rutkauskas

Ginevičius

2011

Journal of Business Economics and Management

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There are two principal problems arising for marketing management: fi rst -the increase of marketing ability to use effectively its resources, and second -to inventory the risks infl uencing marketing activity in order to develop their management strategy. Considering exceptional riskiness of marketing, the solution of marketing effi ciency problems is not separable from identifi cation of risks, infl uencing marketing, and their management strategies development. Integrated analysis of marketing effi ciency and risk management problems is performed in two ways. First, a marketing risks portfolio management situation is analysed in such a way that resources, intended for risk management, are distributed among the means of decreasing value at risk in such a manner that the overall value of risk, i.e. the resultant of all risk values, would be minimal. Second, based on the expert effi ciency estimates for a unit of costs in every element of marketing structure, a distribution of costs is pursued which would uphold the best increase of marketinggenerated marginal utility. To fi nd the solution, imitative modeling and stochastic optimization methods are used.Keywords: marketing effi ciency, marketing risk, integrated management of marketing effi ciency and risk.Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Rutkauskas, A. V.; Ginevičius, A. 2011. Integrated management of marketing risk and effi ciency, Journal of Business Economics and Management 12(1): 5-23. JEL Classifi cations: G11, G17, D81, M31, M39.

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The Relationship of Actual and Predicted Sales and Profits in New-Product Introductions

Cited by 36 publications

References 0 publications

Performance Assessment of the Lead User Idea-Generation Process for New Product Development

Performance Assessment of the Lead User Idea-Generation Process for New Product Development

New product introductions and failures under uncertainty

Integrated Management of Marketing Risk and Efficiency / Integruotas Marketingo Rizikos Ir Efektyvumo Valdymas

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