The relationship between the Istanbul Stock Market and Türkiye’s foreign trade

Abstract

International trade is a significant indicator determining all countries' competitiveness and welfare levels, whether developed or developing. Stock markets are indicators of capital markets and economies. In this context, it may be significant to determine the relationship levels of international trade and the stock market. Purpose of the study: To examine the relationship and level between international trade potential in Türkiye and the BIST 100 Index (XU100) in the period 2013:01-2023:12. For this purpose, the reflection of Türkiye's exports and imports on BIST 100 was evaluated using Johansen Cointegral and Granger Causality Analysis methods. According to the findings, it has been determined that exports and imports are related to BIST 100 performance in the short and long term and cause BIST 100 performance. Exports positively affect BIST 100 performance in the short and long term, while imports negatively affect BIST 100 performance in the short and long term.