The relationship between GRACE gravity and the seismic b-value: a case study of the Northern Chile Triple Junction (25° S–40° S)

Abstract

Summary The northern Chile Triple Junction (CTJ) is characterized by the ongoing subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The geological structures within the subduction zone undergo complex changes, resulting in significant tectonic activities and intense seismicity along the western margin of South America. Based on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and earthquake catalogues, this study selects the northern CTJ area (25°S-40°S, 75°W-65°W) as the research object, adopts the mathematical methods of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to separate the earthquake-related signals within the GRACE data, and fits the changes of seismic b-values through the frequency-magnitude relationship. The characteristics of gravity changes before and after seismic events, the seismic activity parameter b-values, and the relationship between the gravity signals and b-values are discussed. The results show that mathematical methods can effectively extract seismic-related gravity components from the GRACE data. ICA, compared to PCA, provides better results in capturing the temporal variations associated with b-value time series, which exhibit good consistency in long-term trend changes. The average change of b-values in the study area is 0.66 ± 0.003, fluctuating over time. Generally, prior to larger seismic events, b-values tend to decrease. Along the western margin of South America, b-values are low; this aligns with the active tectonic activities between subducting plates. Additionally, a certain correlation between b-values and gravity changes is observed, but due to the influence of tectonic activities, the correspondence between b-values and gravity anomalies may not be consistent across different areas. The b-value is highly consistent with the strain rate model. Low b-values correspond to high strain rates along the western edge of South America, which is in line with the tectonic characteristics of frequent seismic activity in this area. A gradual concentration of gravity anomalies before major earthquakes is observed, accompanied by the gradual accumulation of smaller seismic events. Meanwhile, several months before the two major earthquakes, the spatial distribution of gravity appears to be similar to the co-seismic signals, but the nature of its generation remains to be explored. These methods and results not only add to the applications of GRACE in seismic studies but also raise questions for further exploration.