The relationship between gasoline price and patterns of motorcycle fatalities and injuries

Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A.; Stimpson, Jim P.

doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2014-041314

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…ARIMA models have been widely developed to analyze time-series data in previous traffic safety studies (Friedman et al 2007; Martinez-Schnell and Zaidi 1989; Quddus 2008; Ramstedt 2008). Prior studies of gasoline prices and motorcycle safety have used ARIMA models to estimate the association of gasoline prices on motorcycle outcomes (Hyatt et al 2009; Wilson et al 2009; Zhu et al 2015). ARIMA models are also appropriate to address serial correlation in the data (Becketti 2013; Box et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hyatt et al (2009) suggested that gasoline prices were positively associated with population-adjusted rates of motorcycle injuries and fatalities, although there was no significant association after adjusting for the number of registered motorcycles on the road. Zhu et al (2015) found that motorcycle fatal and non-fatal injuries were highly correlated with increasing gasoline prices for the state of California.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities

et al. 2015

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BackgroundWe examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices.MethodsThe data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase.ResultsNew motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities

et al. 2015

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“…[85][86][87][88][89][90][91]. On the other hand, the records were, also, not correlated, with basic information such as policies to ease purchase of vehicles, price of gas, motorcyclist's perceptions and preferences for using a type of vehicle, among others [92][93][94][95].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Motorcyclists’ Mortality Pattern in Colombia from 2000 to 2013: A Longitudinal Study

Martin¹,

Tovar²,

Cidronio³

et al. 2017

Arch Med

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“…Their findings suggested that raising gasoline prices increased the number of motorcycle riders on the roads and, consequently, caused more motorcycle injuries. They indicated that besides the mandatory helmet use law, implementing ways to raise risk awareness of motorcyclists, investment in alternative transportation modes like public transportation and making strict licensing tests of riding skills would help to reduce the motorcycle fatal and non-fatal injuries (19). Hyatt et al, conducted a study to evaluate the association between increases in gasoline price for automobile occupants and motorcycle riders and motor vehicle collision-related injury and fatality rates; they reported that although the number of injuries and fatalities in motorcycle-related crashes increased with increasing gasoline price, rates of motorcycle-related injuries and fatalities per registered vehicles remained unchanged.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gasoline Pricing Policy for Transportation Safety

Safaei¹,

Zhou²

2021

Preprint

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Economic factors can have substantial effects on transportation crash trends. This study makes a comprehensive examination of the relationship between the retail gasoline price (including state and federal fuel taxes) and transportation fatal crashes from 2007 to 2016 in the US. Data on motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian fatal crashes come from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) provided by the National Highway Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the gasoline price data is from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Random effect negative binomial regression models are used to estimate the impact of inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on trends of transportation fatal crashes. Initial results combined with results of previous studies showed that gender and transportation mean type (motorcycle, non-motorcycle, bicycle and pedestrian) play prominentroles in interpreting the final model, so by using random effect negative binomial regression, seven models are developed to evaluate the effects of gasoline price changes on total population, male, female, motorcyclists, non-motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians separately. Our findings suggest that increasing the gasoline prices will not significantly alter the number of total fatal crashes. However, by looking at different vehicle types, it is estimated that one dollar increase in adjusted gasoline price is associated with 24.2% increase in the number of motorcycle fatal crashes, 1.9% decrease in the number of non-motorcycle fatal crashes, and 0.7% decrease in the number of pedestrian fatal crashes. Also, there is no noticeable difference between male and female in response to the gasoline price changes.

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The relationship between gasoline price and patterns of motorcycle fatalities and injuries

Cited by 12 publications

References 15 publications

Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities

Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities

Motorcyclists’ Mortality Pattern in Colombia from 2000 to 2013: A Longitudinal Study

Gasoline Pricing Policy for Transportation Safety

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