The relationship between El Niño and the western North Pacific summer climate in a coupled GCM: Role of the transition of El Niño decaying phases

Chen, Wei; Park, Jong-Kil; Dong, Buwen; Lu, Riyu; Jung, Woo‐Sik

doi:10.1029/2011jd017385

Cited by 64 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…For example, a strong La Niña event developed in 1998 summer (with Niño3.4 SST at −1.2 • C) following a record El Niño. Such variability in the SST gradient between the IO and tropical Pacific contributes to the TNW Pacific AAC (Terao and Kubota, 2005;Chen et al, 2012;Cao et al, 2013;Xiang et al, 2013). Recent studies have also suggested a contribution from the tropical Atlantic (Rong et al, 2010;Hong et al, 2014;Chen et al, 2015;Yu et al, 2015).…”

Section: Sst Forcingmentioning

confidence: 98%

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

et al. 2016

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ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Niño summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled oceanatmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Niño stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

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Section: Sst Forcingmentioning

confidence: 98%

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

et al. 2016

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“…However, Chen et al (2012Chen et al ( , 2016 argued that the El Niño events with fast decaying phases could lead to significant stronger WPSA in the subsequent summer. Such discrepancy is partly attributed to the different definition of fast decaying El Niño, and partly due to the different analysing period between Chen et al's and our work.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why was the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone weaker in late summer after the 2015/2016 super El Niño?

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The western Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WPSA), which bridges the El Niño events and the East Asian summer monsoon, is generally enhanced in boreal summer after El Niño events. However, it becomes weaker in boreal late summer (July-August) of 2016, following the 2015/2016 super El Niño event, indicating failure of the previous experience. Our results suggest that the weaker WPSA in late summer 2016 is associated with the extinction of the Indian Ocean capacitor effect, presenting the cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) after the fast decaying of the 2015/2016 super El Niño in spring. Compared with the case in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, both data analysis and numerical experiments indicate that the cold WTIO SSTAs could induce an anomalous zonal circulation, with its descending branch over the WTIO and the ascending branch over the western North Pacific (WNP). Afterwards, the thermal structure in the upper troposphere of the WNP is altered to enhance the local wave guide, which facilitate the equatorward propagation of the mid-latitudinal wave train into the WNP. Consequently, the abnormal ascending over the WNP weaken the WPSA in conjunction with the anomaly of the upper-tropospheric cyclone due to the southward intrusion of the wave train during late summer 2016. This implicates the possible influence of El Niño evolution in spring on the WPSA intensity in the subsequent summer. Ocean; air-sea interaction

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“…The cold SST anomaly over the equatorial Pacific is also in favor of an enhanced WNPSH via stimulating anticyclonic Rossby wave to its northwest Xiang et al 2013). Therefore, it is recognized that the increased zonal SST gradient between a warm TIO and a cold tropical Pacific Ocean enhances the WNPSH (Terao and Kubota 2005;Chen et al 2012;Cao et al 2013). The WNPSH can also be enhanced by the descending branch of the enhanced local Hadley circulation induced by the warm SST anomaly over the Maritime Continent (Sui et al 2007;Wu and Zhou 2008;Chung et al 2011) or enhanced by anticyclonic Rossby wave generated by local cold SST anomaly over the WNP (Wang et al 2000;Wu et al 2010;Wang et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Responses of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High to Global Warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios Projected by 33 CMIP5 Models: The Dominance of Tropical Indian Ocean–Tropical Western Pacific SST Gradient

Zhou

2014

Journal of Climate

113

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Using the outputs of 33 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the changes of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the 2050-99 period under representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios relative to the 1950-99 period are analyzed. Under both scenarios, the projected changes in the WNPSH intensity are approximately zero in the multimodel ensemble mean (MME), and large intermodel spread is seen. About half of the models project an enhanced WNPSH and about half of the models project a weakened WNPSH under both scenarios. As revealed by both diagnostic studies and numerical simulations, the projected change in the WNPSH intensity is dominated by the change in the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the tropical western Pacific (TWP). A stronger (weaker) warming in the TIO is in favor of an enhanced (weakened) WNPSH, and a weaker (stronger) warming over the TWP is also in favor of an enhanced (weakened) WNPSH. The projected change of the WNPSH modulates the climate change over eastern China. Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, all of the models with a significantly increased (decreased) WNPSH intensity are associated with a significant increase in the precipitation over the northern (southern) part of eastern China and an enhanced (weakened) southerly wind.

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The relationship between El Niño and the western North Pacific summer climate in a coupled GCM: Role of the transition of El Niño decaying phases

Cited by 64 publications

References 49 publications

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

Why was the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone weaker in late summer after the 2015/2016 super El Niño?

Responses of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High to Global Warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios Projected by 33 CMIP5 Models: The Dominance of Tropical Indian Ocean–Tropical Western Pacific SST Gradient

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