The relationship between climate change and wars waged between nomadic and farming groups from the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty period

Abstract

Abstract. In ancient China, shifts in regional productivity of agriculture and animal husbandry, caused by climate change, either led to wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. During the period spanning the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty, 367 wars were waged between these groups. While 69 % of the wars were initiated by nomads, 62.4 % were won by the farming groups. On a centennial timescale, the battlegrounds were mostly in northern areas (at an average latitude of 38.92 • N) during warm periods, moving southward (at an average latitude of 34.66 • N) during cold periods. On a decadal timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars (a correlation coefficient of 0.293). While farming groups were inclined to initiate wars during dry and cold periods, their chances of achieving victory were reduced at such times. The main reasons for this are, first, that a warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, contributing especially to enhanced productivity among the former. However, the overriding desire of nomadic groups to expand essential subsistence means led to wars. Second, during cold periods, farming groups moved to and settled in the south, while nomadic groups occupied the Central Plain. Thus, the locations of the battlefields also changed. While other factors also influenced these wars, climate change served as a backdrop, playing an indirect role in wars between these groups.

Cultivated oasis evolution in the Heihe River Basin over the past 2,000 years

“…This led to expansion of the cultivated oases, driven by agricultural policy (Cheng, ; Wang, ; Xie et al, ;). War was positively correlated with the area of cultivated oasis, which is consistent with the findings of studies in this region (Liu et al, ; Shi, ; Wang, ; Xie et al, ) but contrary to studies in other regions (Su, Liu, Fang, & Ma, ; Zhang et al, ). This was due to the HRB's unique geographical position: The positive impacts of military clashes could be attributed to using local agricultural production to provision the army.…”

Modeling environmental variability and network formation among pastoral nomadic households: Implications for the rise of the Mongol Empire

“…Thus far, a small number of large-scale quantitative projects have attempted to correlate environmental data with nomadic political activity over long time spans. Su et al [7], make use of multiple climate reconstructions (namely [41–43,49,50]), and find that periods of warfare between East Asian nomads and neighbouring sedentary societies occurred most frequently during climatic upturns, in contrast to previous models proposing nomadic warfare as a reaction to resource scarcity [51]. According to Su et al [7], this divergence is due to their focus on warfare between nomadic and sedentary groups, and not violence within groups.…”

Social Impacts of Climate Change in Historical China

“…11.3). In addition, other series of famine index, peasant uprising frequency, and frequency of wars waged between nomadic and farming groups of China in 10 years resolution over the past 2000 years were also reconstructed (Teng et al 2014;Fang et al 2015;Su et al 2016). Detailed descriptions on the specific steps and the uncertainties for each reconstructed series are in the cited references.…”