The Relation Between Temperature, Ozone, and Mortality in Nine French Cities During the Heat Wave of 2003

Filleul, Laurent; Cassadou, Sylvie; Médina, Sylvia; Fabres, Pascal; Lefranc, Agnès; Eilstein, Daniel; Tertre, Alain Le; Pascal, Laurence; Chardon, Benoît; Blanchard, Myriam; Declercq, Christophe; Jusot, Jean-François; Prouvost, Hélène; Ledrans, Martine

doi:10.1289/ehp.8328

Cited by 250 publications

(151 citation statements)

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“…Trigo et al (2005) have shown that the geographical pattern of the temperature anomaly matched well the mortality rates in France during the period 1-15 August 2003, although air quality as well as the specific sensitivities to high temperatures (particularly at night) of the populations living in the North or in the South of France also play a role. Filleul et al (2006) confirmed that ozone (O 3 ) levels had a non-negligible impact on public health in urban areas of France during the August 2003 heat wave, and also found that the relative contribution of ozone and temperature to the high mortality was heterogeneous among cities according to local characteristics.…”

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confidence: 53%

Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Three global Chemistry Transport Models -MOZART, MOCAGE, and TM5 -as well as MOZART coupled to the IFS meteorological model including assimilation of ozone (O 3 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) satellite column retrievals, have been compared to surface measurements and MOZAIC vertical profiles in the troposphere over Western/Central Europe for summer 2003. The models reproduce the meteorological features and enhancement of pollution during the period 2-14 August, but not fully the ozone and CO mixing ratios measured during that episode. Modified normalised mean biases are around −25% (except ∼5% for MOCAGE) in the case of ozone and from −80% to −30% for CO in the boundary layer above Frankfurt. The coupling and assimilation of CO columns from MOPITT overcomes some of the deficiencies in the treatment of transport, chemistry and emissions in MOZART, reducing the negative biases to around 20%. The high reactivity and small dry deposition velocities in MOCAGE seem to be responsible for the overestimation of O 3 in this model. Results from sensitivity simulations indicate that an increase of the horizontal Correspondence to: C. Ordóñez (carlos.ordonez@metoffice.gov.uk) resolution to around 1 • ×1 • and potential uncertainties in European anthropogenic emissions or in long-range transport of pollution cannot completely account for the underestimation of CO and O 3 found for most models. A process-oriented TM5 sensitivity simulation where soil wetness was reduced results in a decrease in dry deposition fluxes and a subsequent ozone increase larger than the ozone changes due to the previous sensitivity runs. However this latest simulation still underestimates ozone during the heat wave and overestimates it outside that period. Most probably, a combination of the mentioned factors together with underrepresented biogenic emissions in the models, uncertainties in the modelling of vertical/horizontal transport processes in the proximity of the boundary layer as well as limitations of the chemistry schemes are responsible for the underestimation of ozone (overestimation in the case of MOCAGE) and CO found in the models during this extreme pollution event.

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confidence: 53%

Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

et al. 2010

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“…The results to date are mixed, as some investigators reported air pollutants modified the temperature effect, while others reported no interactions, but rather independent effects of pollution and temperature. For example, ozone and temperature were reported to interact during the 2003 heat wave in nine French cities and in 100 cities studied over several summers in the United States (Ren et al, 2008a;Filleul et al, 2006b). In addition, in a new study of nine European cities (Analitis et al, 2013) from the EuroHEAT project, there is evidence that supports interactive effects between heat waves and high ozone and PM 10 concentrations.…”

Section: Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A rapid assessment of the impact of hazard reduction burning around Sydney, May 2016

Broome¹,

Johnston

Horsley

et al. 2016

Medical Journal of Australia

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This document presents answers to 24 questions relevant to reviewing European policies on air pollution and to addressing health aspects of these policies. The answers were developed by a large group of scientists engaged in the WHO project "Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution -REVIHAAP". The experts reviewed and discussed the newly accumulated scientific evidence on the adverse effects on health of air pollution, formulating science-based answers to the 24 questions. Extensive rationales for the answers, including the list of key references, are provided. The review concludes that a considerable amount of new scientific information on the adverse effects on health of particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide, observed at levels commonly present in Europe, has been published in recent years. This new evidence supports the scientific conclusions of the WHO air quality guidelines, last updated in 2005, and indicates that the effects in some cases occur at air pollution concentrations lower than those serving to establish these guidelines. It also provides scientific arguments for taking decisive actions to improve air quality and reduce the burden of disease associated with air pollution in Europe.This publication arises from the project REVIHAAP and has been co-funded by the European Union. Keywords AIR POLLUTANTS AIR POLLUTION -ADVERSE EFFECTS ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC HEALTH EVIDENCE BASED PRACTICE GUIDELINES HEALTH POLICYAddress requests about publications of the WHO Regional Office for Europe to: Publications WHO Regional Office for Europe Scherfigsvej 8 DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark Alternatively, complete an online request form for documentation, health information, or for permission to quote or translate, on the Regional Office web site (http://www.euro.who.int/pubrequest). © World Health Organization 2013All rights reserved. The Regional Office for Europe of the World Health Organization welcomes requests for permission to reproduce or translate its publications, in part or in full.The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines on maps represent approximate borderlines for which there may not yet be full agreement.The mention of specific companies or of certain manufacturers products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the World Health Organization in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. Errors and omissions excepted, the names of proprietary products are distinguished by initial capital letters.All reasonable precautions have been taken by the World Health Organization to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. ...

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“…A number of studies examined the 2003 heat waves as to their meteorological causes (e.g. Black et al, 2004;Fink et al, 2004;Fischer et al, 2007), climatological importance (including possible global warming relationships; Beniston, 2004;Schär and Jendritzky, 2004;Stott et al, 2004;Trigo et al, 2005;Chase et al, 2006), environmental effects (Jolly et al, 2005;Ciais et al, 2005;Rebetez et al, 2006) and human mortality impacts (Vandentorren et al, 2004;Johnson et al, 2005;Grize et al, 2005;Filleul et al, 2006), focusing primarily on western Europe. With an estimated death toll exceeding 30 000 over Europe, the August 2003 heat wave was the worst natural disaster in Europe during the last 50 years (De Bono et al, 2004), yielding a pervasive example of how seriously also high-income countries like France may be affected by adverse effects of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long‐term prospect?

Kyselý

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

135

111

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ABSTRACT:The study examines whether recent occurrences of severe heat waves in central Europe were exceptional in the context of past fluctuations, and estimates their recurrence probabilities under several climate change scenarios. Using data from a network of meteorological stations in the Czech Republic since 1961, it is found that 1994 was the year with the most severe heat waves over majority of the area. The other seasons with enhanced heat wave characteristics were 1992, 2003 and 2006. Analysis of the long-term temperature series at Prague-Klementinum reveals that the July 2006 heat wave, covering 33 consecutive days, was the longest and most severe individual heat wave since 1775. Probabilities of long and severe heat waves are estimated from daily temperature series generated by a first-order autoregressive model with a deterministic component (incorporating a seasonal cycle and a long-term trend). The model is validated with respect to the simulation of heat waves in present climate and subsequently run under several assumptions reflecting various rates of summer warming over 2007-2100. The return period of a heat wave reaching or exceeding the length of the 2006 heat wave in Prague is estimated to be around 120 years in 2006. Owing to an increase in mean summer temperatures, probabilities of very long heat waves have already risen by an order of magnitude over the recent 25 years, and are likely to increase by another order of magnitude by around 2040 under the summer warming rate assumed by the mid-scenario. Even the lower bound scenario yields a considerable decline of return periods associated with intense heat waves. Nevertheless, the most severe recent heat waves appear to be typical rather of a late 21st century than a mid-21st century climate.

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The Relation Between Temperature, Ozone, and Mortality in Nine French Cities During the Heat Wave of 2003

Cited by 250 publications

References 16 publications

Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

A rapid assessment of the impact of hazard reduction burning around Sydney, May 2016

Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long‐term prospect?

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