The Relation among the Solar Activity, the Total Ozone, QBO, NAO, and ENSO by Wavelet-Based Multifractal Analysis

Abstract

There is an increasing interest in the relation between the solar activity and climate change. As for the solar activity, a fractal property of the sunspot number was studied by many works. In general, a fractal property was observed in the time series of dynamics of complex systems. The purposes of this study are to investigate the relations among the solar activity, total ozone, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from a view of multi-fractality. To detect the changes of multifractality, we examined the multifractal analysis on the time series of the solar 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7 flux), total ozone, QBO, NAO, and Niño3.4 indices. During the period 1950 and 2010, for the F10.7 flux and QBO index, the matching in monofractality or multifractality is observed and the increase and decrease of multifractality is similar; that is the change of multifractality is similar. In the same way, it is very similar, during the period 1985 and 2010, for the QBO and the total ozone, and during the period 1950 and 2010, for the QBO, and NAO and for the QBO, and Niño3.4. Compared to Niño3.4, the multifractality of NAO and QBO was strong and it turns out that they are undergoing unstable change. The relation among the solar activity, total ozone, QBO, NAO, and ENSO was clarified by the methods of fractal analysis and the wavelet coherence. These findings will contribute to the research of the relation between the solar activity and climate change.

Analyzing Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Using Mass Fluxes Calculated from Weather Balloon Measurements: North Atlantic Region as a Case Study

“…Several studies have argued for solar signals in Hadley and Walker cell circulations [78]; ENSO [79]; the occurrence of "El Niño Modoki" events [80]; NAO [72,[81][82][83][84][85][86][87]; NAM [88]; Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events [89,90]; and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) [91,92]. Recently, some researchers have noted that there seem to be relationships between the strength of MJO events and the phase of the QBO [93], although the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models do not appear to be able to replicate these QBO-MJO connections [94].…”

“…However, the use of wavelet-based frequency analysis is becoming increasingly popular for studying hydroclimatic time series [84,87,91,92,[103][104][105]144,146,147,149,150]. Often the variabilities of these time series are compared with metrics of potential climatic drivers, including solar activity metrics [84,87,91,92,[103][104][105]149,150], anthropogenic forcings [149,150] and atmospheric circulation indices such as NAO, ENSO, QBO, etc. [84,91,92,150].…”

Robust Adaptation to Multiscale Climate Variability

“…For example, wavelet methods have been used to estimate the Hurst exponent (Chamoli et al, 2007;Simonsen et al, 1998) and to design simulation algorithms that reproduce self-similarity, long-range dependence, and quasiperiodic regimes (Bullmore et al, 2001;Feng et al, 2005;Geweke & Porter-Hudak, 1983;Kwon et al, 2007). These processes have also been used to describe multiscale dynamics of the climate (Lovejoy, 2013;Lovejoy & Schertzer, 2012;2013;Selvam, 2017), including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Maruyama, 2018;Živković & Rypdal, 2013) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua et al, 1997). The Hurst exponent is directly related to the fractal dimension of a process, and there is a rich multidisciplinary literature as to the process level and statistical justification of long memory and fractal processes in hydrology (Beran, 1994;Mandelbrot, 1985;Mandelbrot & Wallis, 1969).…”

“…The Hurst exponent is directly related to the fractal dimension of a process, and there is a rich multidisciplinary literature as to the process level and statistical justification of long memory and fractal processes in hydrology (Beran, 1994;Mandelbrot, 1985;Mandelbrot & Wallis, 1969). These processes have also been used to describe multiscale dynamics of the climate (Lovejoy, 2013;Lovejoy & Schertzer, 2012;2013;Selvam, 2017), including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Maruyama, 2018;Živković & Rypdal, 2013) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua et al, 1997).…”

Book of Proceedings Tenth Workshop Primorsko, Bulgaria 2019

“…Now it is well known that the solar activity affects ENSO variations [Lanscheidt T., 2000;Kirov B. and Georgieva K., 2002;Asenovski S. et al, 2015;Zhai Q., 2017;Maruyama F., 2018]. Most of authors point out that ENSO variations are stronger during solar minima, or they have negative correlation with the sunspot numbers for some periods.…”