The regulation path of coal consumption based on the total reduction index—a case study in Shandong Province, China

Liu, Jixiang; Tian, Suqing; Wang, Qingsong; Zhang, Yujie; Yuan, Xueliang; Ma, Qiao; Ma, Haichao; Liu, Chengqing

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.125591

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…UEI and EISD reach 0.552–0.556 and 3.798–3.870 in 2025, which is the optimal scenario under environmental preferences. Liu et al ( 2022 ) believe that it is necessary to appropriately slow down economic development, reduce the proportion of nonrenewable resources, vigorously develop renewable energy, and further improve the green low-carbon cycle system to achieve more sustainable development, which is consistent with the research conclusion of scenario M–L–H–H.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…These variables are the growth rate of social fixed assets investment, the growth rate of raw coal emergy, the growth rate of grain emergy, and the reduction rate of solid waste emergy. Referring to the research of Liu et al ( 2022 ), the above regulatory factors are designed according to three different gradients: low, medium and high (L, M, H), and different gradients of each regulatory factor is arranged in pairs. A total of 3 ^ 4 = 81 scenarios are constructed.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…System dynamics is a system analysis method, which reflects not only the feedback between the stock, flow and auxiliary variables of each part of the system, but also the dynamics, feedback, delay and complexity of the system (Selvakkumaran et al, 2020 ). It has become an important method to predict dynamic complex systems (Liu et al, 2022 ). In view of the fact that the resource-based city is a dynamic complex system, which needs to consider the complex logical relationship between variables and subsystems as well as the feedback between various parts, the above characteristics are more consistent with the functional properties of system dynamics, so it is feasible to choose it as the main research method in this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Research on sustainable development evaluation and improvement path of resource-based cities based on coupling of emergy and system dynamics

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2023

Environ Dev Sustain

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Research on sustainable development evaluation and improvement path of resource-based cities based on coupling of emergy and system dynamics

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2023

Environ Dev Sustain

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“…Te results show that the average annual growth rate of coal consumption and investment will decrease except that the coal price fuctuates during the forecast period. Liu et al [23] constructed a methodology for studying the path of mandatory coal consumption control using aggregate reduction indicators based on scenario combination and system dynamics (SD) prediction analysis. Based on this, the optimal scenario model for future coal consumption in Shandong Province was developed.…”

Section: Research On Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a Novel Fractal-Time-Series Prediction Model to Predict Coal Consumption

Guo-dang

Guo

Xin

et al. 2023

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Currently, coal is still the main energy source for China’s economic development, and the environmental issues caused by coal consumption have aroused widespread concern. Predicting and analyzing coal consumption will help to formulate a higher level of energy consumption planning and economic development strategy. The main purpose of this study is to develop a new fractal time-series prediction (FTSP) model to predict coal consumption, providing reference for formulating effective energy consumption planning and economic development strategies. Hurst index is an important indicator of whether time-series data have long memory and fractal characteristics. This paper uses the rescaled range (R/S) method to calculate Hurst index of the coal consumption per-10000-Yuan-GDP (CC/GDP). The Hurst index is 0.8025, exceeding 0.5, indicating that the time-series data CC/GDP has a long memory and fractal characteristic. Based on this, this paper uses the FTSP model to predict China’s coal consumption (CC/GDP). The prediction results show that the FTSP model accurately predicted China’s coal consumption with a relative error rate (RER) of less than 5% and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.62%. The model predicts a decrease in China’s coal consumption from 0.25 tons of standard coal in 2021 to 0.11 tons of standard coal in 2030, a decrease of 44%. To sum up, the FTSP model provides a new and accurate way to predict coal consumption, and the results suggest that China’s coal consumption is sustainable and will decrease significantly in the coming years. This study has important implications for energy consumption planning and economic development strategies.

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“…However, technological advances and opening-up have led to a decline in the efciency of coal utilization. Taking coal consumption in Shandong province as the research object, Liu et al [11] constructed 21 scenarios of diferent combinations of key elements and studied them separately, intending to provide a useful reference for the government to formulate coal reduction plans. Hou et al [12], combining the new normal of the economy and the current situation of energy structure adjustment, made a Monte Carlo simulation forecast on China's coal demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Sustainability for Coal Consumption Using a Multiattribute Decision-Making Model

Zhao,

Guo,

Wang

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The study of coal consumption has become a focus of academic attention due to ecological and environmental concerns. This study proposed a method to evaluate sustainability for coal consumption by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) model. The data used are from the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Energy Statistical Yearbook over the years. The MADM model consists of attributes (standards), their importance weights, and alternatives. The comprehensive evaluation system for the sustainability of coal consumption, which was composed of four first-grade indicators including coal strength (CS), energy dependency (ED), social development level (SL), and population size (PS) and their corresponding 20 second-grade indicators, was included in the MADM model as attributes (standards). The importance weight of the attributes was determined by the entropy weight method (EWM) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), while the comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability of coal consumption in China over the years was considered as an alternative. The evaluation indices of four first-grade indicators were obtained through multiobjective optimization, and then through the weights and evaluation indices of the four first-grade indicators, multiobjective optimization was carried out for the overall objective of the comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability of coal consumption over the years, and the comprehensive evaluation indices of the sustainable development of coal consumption over the years were obtained. The results show that China’s coal consumption is sustainable, with the composite assessment index rising from 0.058 in 2011 to 0.837 in 2021, an increase of 13.4 times.

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The regulation path of coal consumption based on the total reduction index—a case study in Shandong Province, China

Cited by 5 publications

References 31 publications

Research on sustainable development evaluation and improvement path of resource-based cities based on coupling of emergy and system dynamics

Research on sustainable development evaluation and improvement path of resource-based cities based on coupling of emergy and system dynamics

Using a Novel Fractal-Time-Series Prediction Model to Predict Coal Consumption

Evaluation of Sustainability for Coal Consumption Using a Multiattribute Decision-Making Model

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