The reference installation approach for the estimation of industrial assets at risk

Geldermann, Jutta; Merz, Mirjam; Bertsch, Valentin; Hiete, Michael; Rentz, Otto; Seifert, Isabel; Thieken, Annegret H.; Borst, Dietmar; Werner, Ulrich

doi:10.1504/ejie.2008.016330

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…would also be worthwhile, but may be more difficult to assess than the residential assets because of the wide variety of industries and their susceptibility (Seifert et al, 2010). Bottom-up approaches, such as the reference installation approach developed by Geldermann et al (2008), seem most appropriate to capture this heterogeneity if the available data allows it.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This requires a large number (hundreds) of model evaluations. In flood damage assessments this is mainly hampered by the estimation of inundation depths as the models used for this (2-dimensional hydrodynamic flow models) are computationally very demanding (Gouldby and Kingston, 2007;Apel et al, 2008). The study by Apel et al (2008) is a good example of applying MC to estimate uncertainty in flood risk modelling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands

Moel

Asselman

Aerts

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Uncertainty analyses of flood damage assessments generally require a large amount of model evaluations. This is often hampered by the high computational costs necessary to calculate flood extents and depths using 2-dimensional flow models. In this paper we developed a new approach to estimate flood inundation depths that can be incorporated in a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. This allows estimation of the uncertainty in flood damage estimates and the determination of which parameters contribute the most to this uncertainty. The approach is applied on three breach locations on the west coast of the Netherlands. In total, uncertainties in 12 input parameters were considered in this study, related to the storm surge, breach growth and the damage calculation. We show that the uncertainty in flood damage estimates is substantial, with the bounds of the 95% confidence range being more than four times smaller or larger than the median. The most influential parameter is uncertainty in depth-damage curves, but five other parameters also contribute substantially. The contribution of uncertainty in parameters related to the damage calculation is about equal to the contribution of parameters related to the volume of the inflowing water. Given the emphasis of most risk assessments on the estimation of the hazard, this implies that the damage calculation aspect deserves more attention in flood risk research efforts. Given the large uncertainties found in this study, it is recommended to always perform multiple calculations in flood simulations and damage assessments to capture the full range of model outcomes.</p>

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands

Moel

Asselman

Aerts

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For a thorough evaluation of the method, further comparison with more empirical data on the stock of fixed assets would be reasonable. In a future project, the developed method will be compared with the ''reference installation approach,'' a method that estimates industrial asset values on the basis of similar installations due to similar industrial processes (Geldermann et al 2007). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment

et al. 2009

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For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also information about the elements and values at risk is necessary. This article introduces a methodology for a countrywide estimation of asset values for commercial and industrial properties using Germany as an example. It consists of a financial appraisal of asset values on the municipal level and a further disaggregation by means of land use data. Novelties are the distinction of 60 economic activities, the consideration of production site sizes and the application of a dasymetric mapping technique for a sectorspecific estimation and disaggregation of asset values. A validation with empirical data confirms the feasibility of the calculation. The resulting maps can be used for loss estimations e.g. in the framework of cost-benefit analyses that aim to evaluate hazard mitigation measures or for portfolio analyses by banks and insurance companies. The approach can be used for other countries if the necessary data is available (mainly in industrialized countries). In any case, it reveals the critical points when estimating commercial and industrial asset values.

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“…Limitations exist if the error mechanism or the overall system is not properly understood [2], which is more and more difficult given the increasing complexity of assets. These patterns cannot be predicted for a single asset, but can only be predicted by looking at reference plants [12].…”

Section: Increasing System Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since vulnerability is not static, it is even more difficult to measure risk [14]. For example, age and quality of maintenance have an enormous influence on how susceptible a production asset is to failure [12].…”

Section: Subjective and Dynamic Risk Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a Unified Reliability-Centered Information Logistics Model for Production Assets

Defèr¹,

Schuh²,

Stich³

2020

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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Reliability-centered maintenance for production assets is a well-established concept for the most effective and efficient disposition of maintenance resources. Unfortunately, the approach takes a lot of effort and relies heavily on the knowledge of individuals. Reliability data in Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) is scarce and almost never used well. An automated risk assessment system would have the potential to contribute to the dissemination and effective use of risk information and analysis. The individuality of production setting, however, prevents current systems from being practically relevant for most industries. The presented approach combines ontologies to store and link knowledge, an information logistics model displaying the various information streams, and the Internet of production to take the different user systems and infrastructure layers into account. The provided model of a reference digital shadow for risk information and a detailed information logistics model will help software companies to improve reliability software, standardize and enable assets owners to establish a customized digital shadow for their production networks.

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The reference installation approach for the estimation of industrial assets at risk

Cited by 7 publications

References 23 publications

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands

Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment

Towards a Unified Reliability-Centered Information Logistics Model for Production Assets

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