The recursive grey model and its application

Liu, Lianyi; Liu, Sifeng; Fang, Zhigeng; Jiang, Aiping; Shang, Gang

doi:10.1016/j.apm.2023.02.033

Cited by 21 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In order to make full use of the information value of the new data, Wu et al (2013) proposed the fractional-order accumulation operator. Liu et al (2023) used a recursive estimation to estimate the dynamic parameters of the model. Then, some residual correction techniques are also used to improve the prediction performance of the model (Nguyen et al, 2019;Zhou et al, 2019).…”

Section: Overview Of Population Prediction Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A novel fractional-order discrete grey Gompertz model for analyzing the aging population in Jiangsu Province, China

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2023

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PurposeChina's population aging is gradually deepening and needs to be actively addressed. The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel model for analyzing the population aging.Design/methodology/approachTo analyze the aging status of a region, this study has considered three major indicators: total population, aged population and the proportion of the aged population. Additionally, the authors have developed a novel grey population prediction model that incorporates the fractional-order accumulation operator and Gompertz model (GM). By combining these techniques, the authors' model provides a comprehensive and accurate prediction of population aging trends in Jiangsu Province. This research methodology has the potential to contribute to the development of effective policy solutions to address the challenges posed by the population aging.FindingsThe fractional-order discrete grey GM is suitable for predicting the aging population and has good performance. The population aging of Jiangsu Province will continue to deepen in the next few years.Practical implicationsThe proposed model can be used to predict and analyze aging differences in Jiangsu Province. Based on the prediction and analysis results, identified some corresponding countermeasures are suggested to address the challenges of Jiangsu's future aging problem.Originality/valueThe fractional-order discrete grey GM is firstly proposed in this paper and this model is a novel grey population prediction model with good performance.

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Section: Overview Of Population Prediction Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2013) proposed the fractional-order accumulation operator. Liu et al . (2023) used a recursive estimation to estimate the dynamic parameters of the model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%