The radius of the umbrella cloud helps characterize large explosive volcanic eruptions

Constantinescu, Robert; Hopulele-Gligor, Aurelian; Connor, Charles B.; Bonadonna, Costanza; Connor, L.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Charbonnier, Sylvain; Volentik, A. C.

doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00078-3

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…A VEI 4 volume can be reached if the largest end of the largest estimate (Weibull method) is used with the addition of the base surge deposits. This is more consistent with the VEI classification of Constantinescu et al ( 2021 ) for the observed plume height of 17–21 km (Bachmeier 2020 ; Perttu et al 2020 ) and umbrella radius of 100 km (Lagmay et al 2021 ) of Taal Volcano’s main eruption in 2020.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…However, using the probabilistic approach (Weibull method) with 90% confidence interval, the volume estimate can be as high as 0.097 km 3 which is close to the lower end of the volume range of VEI 4 (0.1–1 km 3 ). Adding the volume of the base surge deposits amounting to 0.019 km 3 (Lagmay et al 2021 ), the total erupted volume translates to a VEI of 4, consistent with the classification criteria of Constantinescu et al ( 2021 ), namely (1) volume of ejecta; (2) eruption plume height; and (3) umbrella cloud radius. The total erupted volume was calculated using crowdsourced and field survey data, whereas the erupted height and umbrella cloud radius are direct measurements from satellite data of Taal Volcano’s 2020 main eruption plume (Bachmeier 2020 ; Perttu et al 2020 ; Lagmay et al 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

“…Himawari satellite images (Bachmeier 2020 ) were used to measure the umbrella cloud radius. These were compared with estimates of the eruption cloud height of the cataclysmic event on 12 January determined by the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Center (PTCC) (Perttu et al 2020 ; PTCC 2020 ) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) (Bachmeier 2020 ) and used to determine the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) (Constantinescu et al 2021 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of the 2020 Taal Volcano tephra fall deposits from crowdsourced information and field data

et al. 2022

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After 43 years of dormancy, Taal Volcano violently erupted in January 2020 forming a towering eruption plume. The fall deposits covered an area of 8605 km2, which includes Metro Manila of the National Capital Region of the Philippines. The tephra fall caused damage to crops, traffic congestion, roof collapse, and changes in air quality in the affected areas. In a tropical region where heavy rains are frequent, immediate collection of data is crucial in order to preserve the tephra fall deposit record, which is readily washed away by surface water runoff and prevailing winds. Crowdsourcing, field surveys, and laboratory analysis of the tephra fall deposits were conducted to document and characterize the tephra fall deposits of the 2020 Taal Volcano eruption and their impacts. Results show that the tephra fall deposit thins downwind exponentially with a thickness half distance of about 1.40 km and 9.49 km for the proximal and distal exponential segments, respectively. The total calculated volume of erupted fallout deposit is 0.057 km3, 0.042 km3, or 0.090 km3 using the exponential, power-law, and Weibull models, respectively, and all translate to a VEI of 3. However, using a probabilistic approach (Weibull method) with 90% confidence interval, the volume estimate is as high as 0.097 km3. With the addition of the base surge deposits amounting to 0.019 km3, the volume translates to a VEI of 4, consistent with the classification for the observed height and umbrella radius of the 2020 main eruption plume. VEI 4 is also consistent with the calculated median eruption plume height of 17.8 km and sub-plinian classification based on combined analysis of isopleth and isopach data. Phreatomagmatic activity originated from a vent located in Taal Volcano’s Main Crater Lake (MCL), which contained 42 million m3 of water. This eruptive style is further supported by the characteristics of the ash grain components of the distal 12 January 2020 tephra fall deposits, consisting dominantly of andesitic vitric fragments (83–90%). Other components of the fall deposits are lithic (7–11%) and crystal (less than 6%) grains. Further textural and geochemical analysis of these tephra fall deposits contributes to better understand the volcanic processes that occurred at Taal Volcano, one of the 16 Decade Volcanoes identified by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) because of its destructive nature and proximity to densely populated areas. The crowdsourcing initiative provided a significant portion of the data used for this study while at the same time educating and empowering the community to build resilience.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of the 2020 Taal Volcano tephra fall deposits from crowdsourced information and field data

et al. 2022

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“…1 ), which by 8:00 pm reached a height of 17-21 km 1 – 3 with an E-W diameter of ~ 100 km. The eruption height and umbrella diameter suggest that the eruption was characterized by mass discharge rates 31 , 32 in the order of 10 7 kgs −1 equivalent to a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)=4. Intense activity lasted up to about 10 hours and started to wane in the morning of 13 January 2020 at about 2:49 am when lava fountaining was observed 33 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hazardous base surges of Taal’s 2020 eruption

Lagmay

Balangue-Tarriela

Aurelio

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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After 43 years of repose, Taal Volcano erupted on 12 January 2020 forming hazardous base surges. Using field, remote sensing (i.e. UAV and LiDAR), and numerical methods, we gathered primary data to generate well-constrained observed information on dune bedform characteristics, impact dynamic pressures and velocities of base surges. This is to advance our knowledge on this type of hazard to understand and evaluate its consequences and risks. The dilute and wet surges traveled at 50-60 ms−1 near the crater rim and decelerated before making impact on coastal communities with dynamic pressures of at least 1.7 kPa. The base surges killed more than a thousand livestock in the southeast of Taal Volcano Island, and then traveled another ~ 600 m offshore. This work is a rare document of a complete, fresh, and practically undisturbed base surge deposit, important in the study of dune deposits formed by volcanic and other processes on Earth and other planets.

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“…Fero et al (2009) and Stohl et al (2011) showed that initial source conditions have significant effects on the simulation of volcanic ash transport. Constantinescu et al (2021) proved that an enhanced initial condition provides an overall better fit of the tephra deposit generated from an ash cloud than do models without a disk-like source, demonstrating the significant impact of initial condition on ash dispersion. Besides location of the eruption vent and timing of the release, traditional VATD simulation requires key global descriptors of the volcanic plume, especially plume height, grain size, eruption duration and mass loading, or alternatively, a mass eruption rate (MER).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Simulating the Transport and Dispersal of Volcanic Ash Clouds With Initial Conditions Created by a 3D Plume Model

et al. 2021

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Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models simulate atmospheric transport of ash from a volcanic source represented by parameterized concentration of ash with height. Most VATD models represent the volcanic plume source as a simple line with a parameterized ash emission rate as a function of height, constrained only by a total mass eruption rate (MER) for a given total rise height. However, the actual vertical ash distribution in volcanic plumes varies from case to case, having complex dependencies on eruption source parameters, such as grain size, speed at the vent, vent size, buoyancy flux, and atmospheric conditions. We present here for the first time the use of a three-dimensional (3D) plume model based on conservation laws to represent the ash cloud source without any prior assumption or simplification regarding plume geometry. By eliminating assumed behavior associated with a parameterized plume geometry, the predictive skill of VATD simulations is improved. We use our recently developed volcanic plume model based on a 3D smoothed-particle hydrodynamic Lagrangian method and couple the output to a standard Lagrangian VATD model. We apply the coupled model to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach. Our investigation reveals that initial particle distribution in the vertical direction, including within the umbrella cloud, has more impact on the long-range transport of ash clouds than does the horizontal distribution. Comparison with satellite data indicates that the 3D model-based distribution of ash particles through the depth of the volcanic umbrella cloud, which is much lower than the observed maximum plume height, produces improved long-range VATD simulations. We thus show that initial conditions have a significant impact on VATD, and it is possible to obtain a better estimate of initial conditions for VATD simulations with deterministic, 3D forward modeling of the volcanic plume. Such modeling may therefore provide a path to better forecasts lessening the need for user intervention, or attempts to observe details of an eruption that are beyond the resolution of any potential satellite or ground-based technique, or a posteriori creating a history of ash emission height via inversion.

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The radius of the umbrella cloud helps characterize large explosive volcanic eruptions

Cited by 17 publications

References 71 publications

Analysis of the 2020 Taal Volcano tephra fall deposits from crowdsourced information and field data

Analysis of the 2020 Taal Volcano tephra fall deposits from crowdsourced information and field data

Hazardous base surges of Taal’s 2020 eruption

Simulating the Transport and Dispersal of Volcanic Ash Clouds With Initial Conditions Created by a 3D Plume Model

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