The Quality and User Acceptance of Multiat-Tribute Utility Analysis Performed by Computer and Analyst

John, Richard S.; Winterfeldt, Detlof von; Edwards, Ward

doi:10.1016/s0166-4115(08)62240-2

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…On the other hand, many decision-aiding computer programs require users to consider quite explicitly the bases for their decisions, and the use of such decision aids generally leads both to good choices and high levels of user satisfaction with the choices (Aldag & Power, 1986;Bronner & de Hoog, 1983;John, von Winterfeldt, & Edwards, 1983;Mau & Jepsen, 1992;Olson, Moshkovich, Schellenberger, & Mechitov, 1995;Timmermans & Vlek, 1994). There also are effective decision aids that are not based on computer assistance, but even these recommended techniques, such as listing the pro and con reasons for each option (e.g., Mann, 1972) and "valuefocused thinking" (Keeney, 1992, chap. 2), require explicit consideration of the bases of one's decision.…”

Section: Theprimarypurposeofthepresentresearchistorec-mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Decision Aids on High School Students’ Satisfaction with their College Choice Decision

Kmett

Arkes

Jones

1999

Pers Soc Psychol Bull

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Research by Wilson suggests that examining the bases of one's decision can lower satisfaction with the outcome of that decision.However, several investigators have found that using decision aids that cause people to consider the bases of their decisions leads to greater satisfaction with the decision. In the present study, high school students used either no decision aid, a pro/con list, or a computer program in making their actual college choice. Among students whose recall of the basis for their college choice was less accurate, the two aids resulted in significantly higher satisfaction with their decision when assessed after one college term compared to the satisfaction level of the control group. The authors suggest that use of a decision aid will heighten satisfaction with one's choice if the aid promotes the identification of the appropriate bases on which the decision will be made.

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Section: Theprimarypurposeofthepresentresearchistorec-mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Decision Aids on High School Students’ Satisfaction with their College Choice Decision

Kmett

Arkes

Jones

1999

Pers Soc Psychol Bull

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“…John et al (1983) showed that objectives elicited by an analyst in a personal interview were more complete and more satisfactory to subjects than those developed with a computer program. Pitz et al (1980) and Jungermann et al (1983) demonstrated that more and better alternatives are generated using the decision-maker's objectives to stimulate thinking about alternatives.…”

Section: Development Of Alternatives Objectives and Attributesmentioning

confidence: 98%

On the Relevance of Behavioral Decision Research for Decision Analysis

Winterfeldt

1999

Decision Science and Technology

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In 1954 and 1961 Ward Edwards published two seminal articles that created behavioral decision research as a new field of study in psychology (Edwards, 1954(Edwards, , 1961. The topics of this research include how people make decisions and how these decisions can be improved with tools and training. Behavioral decision research has been conducted in two distinct paradigms: the cognitive illusions paradigm and the engineering psychology paradigm. Both are, in different ways, relevant to decision analysis.The cognitive illusions paradigm evolved from the work by Tversky and Kahneman (see Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky, 1982;. It is concerned with describing how people make judgments about uncertainties and values and how these judgments deviate from probability theory and expected utility theory. The term cognitive illusion was used by Ward Edwards (see von Winterfeldt and Edwards, 1986, chapter 13) to draw attention to the similarity of this paradigm with the study of perceptual illusions. J. Shanteau et al. (eds.), Decision Science and Technology © Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999 134Research within the cognitive illusions paradigm typically involves four steps:1. Identify a normative model for a judgment or decision making task (e.g., the multiplication law of probability theory); 2. Experimentally demonstrate the deviations from the normative model (e.g., the conjunction fallacy); 3. Develop an alternative model or explanation (e.g., representativeness); 4. Test the alternative models or explanations.This paradigm has stimulated an extraordinary amount of experimentation in many scientific areas including cognitive psychology, social psychology, economics, management science, and medicine. It has led the way to new descriptive theories of how people judge uncertainties and uncertain prospects.The engineering psychology paradigm has a long-standing tradition in the human factors and human performance sub-fields of psychology. It is concerned with improving people's judgments and decisions. Researchers using this paradigm consider deviations from normative models as a challenge to be overcome by training and by developing tools to improve human performance.Research within this paradigm follows the typical engineering approach of developing tools for improving performance, to test these tools in experimental settings, and to implement the successful tools. Typically, it involves the following steps:1. Identify a normative model for a judgment or decision making task (e.g., Bayes' theorem for revising probability judgments); 2. Identify implementation problems (e.g., conservatism or ignoring base rates); 3. Develop tools to overcome the implementation problems (e.g., decomposition of the task into judgments of prior odds and likelihood ratios); 4. Test the tools and implement successful ones.Research within the engineering psychology paradigm has produced useful tools for improving judgment and decision making.It has provided experimental support for the value of decision analysis and it tested the models and tools of...

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“…Here we were not so sure, however, as the empirical evidence on the eects of multi-attribute decision support methods is varied. In this respect, the results of an evaluation study by John, Von Winterfeldt and Edwards (1983) were somewhat equivocal. Aldag and Power's (1986) study revealed positive attitudes towards multi-attribute decision aiding, but aided and Exhibit 1.…”

Section: Traffic Policy Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future-sketching and multi-attribute evaluation may affect your preference order of complex policy scenarios

Vlek¹,

Mesken²,

Steg³

1999

J. Behav. Decis. Making

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The Quality and User Acceptance of Multiat-Tribute Utility Analysis Performed by Computer and Analyst

Cited by 16 publications

References 14 publications

The Influence of Decision Aids on High School Students’ Satisfaction with their College Choice Decision

The Influence of Decision Aids on High School Students’ Satisfaction with their College Choice Decision

On the Relevance of Behavioral Decision Research for Decision Analysis

Future-sketching and multi-attribute evaluation may affect your preference order of complex policy scenarios

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