The Push and Pull of Political Leaders

Abstract

The chapter investigates the influence of changing candidate orientations on the probability to switch votes away from or toward a party between the German federal elections of 2013 and 2017. While both electoral volatility and candidate voting are considered potential consequences of an increasing partisan dealignment in Western democracies, there is still a debate about the link between these two phenomena. Employing data from an inter- and intra-election panel survey, the chapter suggests an influence of changing candidate orientations on vote switching independent of partisan attachments and other determinants of vote switching. An improvement in the evaluation of the candidate of the party a person voted for in 2013 decreased the probability of switching to another party in 2017. Likewise, viewing the candidate of the party a person voted for in 2017 more favorably than his/her predecessor was associated with a higher probability to have switched to this party.