The Public Health Impact of a US Menthol Cigarette Ban on the Non-Hispanic Black Population: A Simulation Study

Abstract

Introduction: As the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) evaluates implementing a ban on menthol cigarettes and cigars, it is critical to estimate the potential public health effects of such a ban. With high rates of menthol cigarette use by the non-Hispanic Black (NHB) population and important smoking-related health disparity implications, the impact of the ban on this population merits strong consideration. Methods: We apply the previously developed Menthol Smoking and Vaping Model. A Status Quo Scenario is developed using population, smoking and vaping data specific to the NHB population. Estimates from a recent expert elicitation on behavioral impacts of a menthol cigarette ban on the NHB population are used to develop a Menthol Ban Scenario implemented in 2021. The public health impacts of the menthol ban are estimated as the difference between smoking and vaping attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the Status Quo and the Menthol Ban Scenarios from 2021-2060. Results: Under the Menthol Ban Scenario, overall smoking is projected to decline by 35.1% in 2026, and by 24.0% in 2060 relative to the Status Quo Scenario. With these reductions, SVADs are estimated to fall by about 18.5% and LYLs by 22.1%, translating to 255,000 premature deaths averted, and 3.9 million life-years gained over a 40-year period. Conclusions: A menthol cigarette ban will substantially reduce the smoking-associated health impact on the NHB population thereby reducing health disparities.