The psychology of the near miss

Reid, R. L.

doi:10.1007/bf01019932

Cited by 218 publications

(182 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…As such, increased persistence may be a consequence of near-misses being present within a gambling game. Within commercial slot machines, near-misses occur at a higher frequency than would be expected by chance (Reid 1986, Harrigan 2009), although their effects are not linear, and persistence was seen to be greatest when near-misses occurred on 30 % of trials, compared to either 15 or 45 % rates (Kassinove and Schare 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Mixed Emotions to Near-Miss Outcomes: A Psychophysiological Study with Facial Electromyography

Sharman

Clark

2015

J Gambl Stud

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Near-misses occur across many forms of gambling and are rated as unpleasant while simultaneously increasing the motivation to continue playing. On slot machines, the icon position relative to the payline moderates the effects of near-misses, with near-misses before the payline increasing motivation, and near-misses after the payline being rated as aversive. Near-misses are also known to increase physiological arousal compared to fullmisses, but physiological measures to date have not been able to dissociate positive and negative emotional responses. The present study measured facial electromyography at the corrugator (brow) and zygomaticus (cheek) sites, as well as electrodermal activity (EDA), following gambling outcomes on a two-reel slot machine simulation in 77 novice gamblers. Behavioral data was collected using trial-by-trial ratings of motivation and valence. Wins were rated as more pleasant and increased motivation to continue playing, compared to non-win outcomes. Wins were also accompanied by increased EDA and zygomaticus activity. Near-misses after the payline were rated as more aversive than other non-wins, and this was accompanied by increased EDA and zygomaticus activity. Near-misses before the payline increased motivation to continue playing, and were accompanied by increased EDA. Thus, both subjective and physiological responses to near-misses differ for events falling either side of the payline. The 'near-miss effect' is not a unitary phenomenon. Facial EMG has differential sensitivity to positive and negative valence and may be a useful measure for future studies of gambling behavior.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…One important structural characteristic that is evident in slot machine play is the 'near-miss' (Reid 1986). Nearmisses occur when an outcome is either spatially or temporally adjacent to a desired outcome (a win).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mixed Emotions to Near-Miss Outcomes: A Psychophysiological Study with Facial Electromyography

Sharman

Clark

2015

J Gambl Stud

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“…Yet another is the 'near miss' fallacy (Reid, 1986). It often appears that one has missed the huge win only by a small margin.…”

Section: Why To Participate In Lotteries?mentioning

confidence: 99%

‘Let me dream on!’ Anticipatory emotions and preference for timing in lotteries

Kocher

Krawczyk

Winden

2014

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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We analyze one of the explanations why people participate in lotteries. Our hypothesis stipulates that part of the value that a unit of money buys in lotteries is consumed before the actual resolution in the form of emotions such as hope. In other words, a person holding a lottery ticket may prefer a delayed resolution of risk due to positive anticipatory emotions. This conjecture is tested in an experiment with real lottery tickets. We show that our theoretical considerations may contribute to explaining empirical puzzles associated with lottery participation, timing of resolution and the spreading of drawings. More specifically, we find that a substantial number of participants prefer delayed resolution, that anticipated thrill is the main variable explaining this choice, that emotions actually experienced during the waiting period are indeed predominantly positive and correlated with predictions. Finally, we find that a great majority prefers to 'spread' chances, that is, to obtain one ticket for each of two drawings rather than two for the same drawing. JEL: C93, D81

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“…The influence of a near miss on gambling behavior has been previously discussed outside of behavior analysis as a cognitive bias inducing the player to continue playing (Reid, 1986). The bias is a hypothetical construct within or characteristic of the individual responsible for an illogical calculation of reality that explains gambling behavior.…”

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confidence: 99%

Near-Miss Effects on Response Latencies and Win Estimations of Slot Machine Players

Dixon

Schreiber

2004

Psychol Rec

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The present study examined the degree to which slot machine near-miss trials, or trials that displayed 2 of 3 winning symbols on the payoff line, affected response times and win estimations of 12 recreational slot machine players. Participants played a commercial slot machine in a casino-like laboratory for course extra-credit points. Videotaped sessions were later coded to assess trial types and participant response latencies and win estimations for each participant. Results show that all 12 participants emitted verbalizations suggesting near-miss trials were of a higher approximation to a win than non-near-miss losing trials. Of the 12 participants 8 also demonstrated higher response latencies following losing trials than following winning trials. Variations across participants' response latencies were attributed to the presence of and response to near miss trials. The implications of the near-miss on game preference, resistance to extinction, and the development of a behavioral treatment for pathological gamblers are discussed.

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The psychology of the near miss

Cited by 218 publications

References 6 publications

Mixed Emotions to Near-Miss Outcomes: A Psychophysiological Study with Facial Electromyography

Mixed Emotions to Near-Miss Outcomes: A Psychophysiological Study with Facial Electromyography

‘Let me dream on!’ Anticipatory emotions and preference for timing in lotteries

Near-Miss Effects on Response Latencies and Win Estimations of Slot Machine Players

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