The Psychology of Conflictive Uncertainty

Smithson, Michael

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-95239-6_1

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…However, in times of less volatility, or in situations with well-defined and well-known options, for example, in repeated choice domains, a leader who states that "it is quite uncertain" may be perceived as attempting to avoid responsibility rather than providing an objective assessment (Nordbye et al, 2018). Future research could investigate how decision-makers who inappropriately attribute uncertainty to external factors are perceived, and could also pursue other conceptualisations of uncertainty (Gustafson & Rice, 2020;Smithson, 2008), for instance, whether uncertainty attributed to conflicting opinions or ambiguity has similar effects on leader competence perceptions as internally or externally attributed uncertainty.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uncertainty can occur for many different reasons and is conceptualised in many different ways (Neace et al, 2011;Smithson, 2008). Some conceptualise uncertainty as probability, expressed numerically as a number between 0 and 1, or in words as a verbal probability phrase, for example, "it is likely," "I am uncertain" (Dhami & Mandel, 2022).…”

Section: Decision-making Uncertainty and (Over)confidencementioning

confidence: 99%

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When leaders disclose uncertainty: Effects of expressing internal and external uncertainty about a decision

Løhre,

Halvor Teigen

2023

Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

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It is generally assumed that decision makers appear more competent and trustworthy when exuding confidence in their choices. However, many decisions are by their nature uncertain. Is it possible for a decision maker to admit uncertainty and still be trusted? We propose that the communicated type of uncertainty may matter. Internal uncertainty, which signals lack of knowledge or a low degree of belief, may be viewed more negatively than external uncertainty, which is associated with randomness and complexity. The results of a series of experiments suggested that people viewed leaders as more competent when they expressed uncertainty about a decision in external (“It is uncertain”) rather than internal terms (“I am uncertain”), overall effect size d = 0.45 [0.16, 0.74]. Paradoxically, when asked directly, participants expressed that leaders should be open about uncertainty rather than exuding confidence and downplaying uncertainty. A final study suggested that decision makers were more willing to reveal uncertainty about a choice to others when they perceived the uncertainty as more external and less internal, and expected more positive and fewer negative consequences from expressing external rather than internal uncertainty.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%