The Proximate Determinants of the Decline to Below‐replacement Fertility in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Ethiopia declined moderately from 6.4 to 5.9 children per woman of reproductive age. During the same period, the TFR in the capital city of Addis Ababa declined from 3.1 to 1.9 children per woman. Even more striking than the magnitude of this decline is that it occurred in the absence of a strong and effective national family planning program. In this study, the components of this fertility decline are identified using the Bongaarts framework of the proximate determinants of fertility. The results of a decomposition analysis indicate that a decrease in the age-specific proportions of women who are married, followed by an increase in contraceptive use are the most important mechanisms by which fertility has declined in Addis Ababa. Poor employment prospects and relatively high housing costs are likely factors that encourage couples to delay marriage and reduce marital fertility.

The impact of infant and child death on subsequent fertility in Ethiopia

“…Because women marry at relatively young ages most births occur within marriage. In urban areas of Ethiopia, where a larger proportion of women are not in unions, nonmarital fertility is exceptionally low and has actually declined Sibanda, Woubalem, Hogan, & Lindstrom, 2003). We excluded from our sample women who had been in more than one union or who were no longer married at the time of the survey because information on the end dates of unions was not collected by the survey.…”

The Estimated Incidence of Induced Abortion in Ethiopia, 2008

“…In 2005, the average wanted family size was 1.2 children, the total fertility rate was 1.4, and 45% of married women used modern contraceptive methods. 9 The age at first marriage increased between 2000 and 2005, with a large proportion of women being unmarried into their mid-20s, increasing the likelihood that they would become sexually active and at risk of unintended pregnancy. 9 The extremely high abortion rate in the two small urban regions is most likely explained by the fact that they are accessible, commercial centers, which have a large network of private health care providers serving women in surrounding areas.…”

“…Women in Addis Ababa and other urban areas are delaying marriage into their 20s, probably in response to adverse economic conditions. 9,10 This delay in marriage may result in increased sexual activity among unmarried young women, raising their risk of unintended pregnancy as well as abortion, given that childbearing outside of marriage is highly stigmatized. In DHS surveys, few unmarried women report ever having been sexually active, but data from other, smaller-scale studies suggest that sexual activity among the unmarried is not uncommon.…”

Revisiting Boserup’s Hypotheses in the Context of Africa

“…For example, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has achieved below replacement fertility (of 2 children per woman), while surrounding regions of the country have fertility in excess of five children per woman (Sibanda et al 2003). These differentials have implications for policies and programmes aimed at addressing high fertility in Africa.…”