The prolonged dilemma: Refugees' impact on labour market in Türkiye

Abstract

Türkiye has a long history of hosting millions of refugees, but since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, it has emerged as the world's leading refugee‐hosting country. Due to this fact, the frequency of refugee inflows to Türkiye has attracted us to explore refugees' macroeconomic impacts as the ongoing political and social debates in Türkiye regarding refugees are immensely focused on their economic impacts. Hence, this paper investigates the effect of refugees on unemployment in Türkiye. The study utilizes the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Bounds Test approach from 1991 to 2021. Our results yield the pronounced positive and aggravating impact of refugees on unemployment rates in Türkiye. Türkiye's policymakers should focus on local economic policies to improve the refugees' formal integration into the labour market to resolve the negative economic effect of refugee hosting on the labour market.