The projections of global and regional rheumatic heart disease burden from 2020 to 2030

Hu, Yingying; Tong, Zijia; Huang, Xuewei; Qin, Jianghui; Lin, Lijin; Fang, Lei; Wang, Wenxin; Liu, Weifang; Sun, Tao; Cai, Jingjing; She, Zhi‐Gang; Li, Hongliang

doi:10.3389/fcvm.2022.941917

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) model with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) was also used to predict the cataract prevalence trend from 2020 to 2030 in China and globally. 15,16…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

Shu¹,

Shao²,

Zhou³

et al. 2023

CLEP

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To explore the trends in the prevalence and disease burden of cataract from 1990 to 2019, evaluate attributable risk factors, and predict trends over the next decade in China and globally. Methods: Data was obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASR) and annual percentage change (EAPC) to show the trends of cataract in China and different regions. We calculated and reported the proportion of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different regions. Then, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis model was also used to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in China and globally. Results:The ASR increased from 867.09 in 1990 to 991.56 in 2019 per 100,000 with an EAPC of 0.88 in China. The agestandardized DALY rate of females was higher than males. DALY rates were correlated to household air pollution from solid fuels, tobacco, high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index. The projective model indicates that the ASR for cataracts will rise to 1101.35×10 6 for male and 1616.63×10 6 for female by 2030. Conclusion:The trends from 1990 to 2030 suggested that the burden of cataract remains high in China. Maintaining good lifestyle habits such as switching to clean energy, reducing cigar intake, controlling blood glucose and weight can reduce the risk of cataracts. As aging increases, China should pay more attention to cataract-induced low vision and blindness and develop public policies to reduce the disease burden.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

Shu¹,

Shao²,

Zhou³

et al. 2023

CLEP

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“…Our methodology comprised two primary steps: Firstly, we collected data on mortality and DALYs rates for colorectal cancer attributable to diet high in red meat across all age brackets (categorized in 5-year intervals) globally and regionally from 1990 to 2019. Subsequently, by applying a specific formula—the ratio of mortality (or DALYs) cases to the corresponding rate for all age groups in the same year—we recalibrated the annual total populations ( 36 ). Following this, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction up to 2030

Yang,

Wu,

Liu

et al. 2024

Front. Nutr.

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BackgroundNumerous studies have already identified an association between excessive consumption of red meat and colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there has been a lack of detailed understanding regarding the disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and CRC.ObjectiveWe aim to offer evidence-based guidance for developing effective strategies that can mitigate the elevated CRC burden in certain countries.MethodsWe used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to evaluate global, regional, and national mortality rates and disability-adjusted Life years (DALYs) related to diet high in red meat. We also considered factors such as sex, age, the socio-demographic index (SDI), and evaluated the cross-national inequalities. Furthermore, we utilized DALYs data from 204 countries and regions to measure cross-country inequalities of CRC by calculating the slope index of inequality and concentration index as standard indicators of absolute and relative inequalities.DiscussionThe results show that globally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted life year rate (ASDR) related to CRC due to diet high in red meat have decreased, with estimated annual percent change (EAPCs) of −0.32% (95% CI −0.37 to −0.28) and-0.18% (95% CI −0.25 to −0.11). Notably, the burden was higher among males and the elderly. The slope index of inequality rose from 22.0 (95% CI 18.1 to 25.9) in 1990 to 32.9 (95% CI 28.3 to 37.5) in 2019 and the concentration index fell from 59.5 (95% CI 46.4 to 72.6) in 1990 to 48.9 (95% CI 34.6 to 63.1) in 2019. Also, according to our projections, global ASDR and ASMR might tend to increase up to 2030.ConclusionASMR and ASDR for CRC associated with high red meat diets declined globally from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute number of cases is still rising, with men and the elderly being more affected. CRC associated with diets high in red meat exhibits significant income inequality, placing a disproportionate burden on wealthier countries. Moreover, according to our projections, ASMR and ASDR are likely to increase globally by 2030. In order to address this intractable disease problem, understanding changes in global and regional epidemiologic trends is critical for policy makers and others.

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“…Our methodology involved two key steps: Initially, we gathered data on the incidence and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) for spinal cord injuries across all age brackets (segmented in 5-year intervals) at both global and regional scales for the years 1990 to 2019. Subsequently, applying a specific formula – the ratio of incidence (or YLD) cases to the corresponding rate for all age groups in the same year – we recalculated the corresponding annual total populations ( 38 ). Following this, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spinal cord injury: global burden from 1990 to 2019 and projections up to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

Liu,

Yang,

et al. 2023

Front. Neurol.

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BackgroundSpinal cord injuries, often resulting from spine fractures, can lead to severe lifelong symptoms such as paraplegia and even mortality. Over the past few decades, there has been a concerning increase in the annual incidence and mortality rates of spinal cord injuries, which has also placed a growing financial strain on healthcare systems. This review aims to offer a comprehensive overview of spinal cord injuries by estimating their global incidence, prevalence, and the impact in terms of years lived with disability, using data obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.MethodIn this study, we utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, a widely recognized source for global health data. Our methodology involved estimating the global incidence and prevalence of spinal cord injuries while also assessing the impact on years lived with a disability. We analyzed this data comprehensively to identify patterns and trends and made predictions.FindingThis research delved into the evolving trends in the global burden of spinal cord injuries, identified key risk factors, and examined variations in incidence and disability across different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels and age groups. Briefly, in 2019, the global incidence and burden of YLDs of SCI significantly increased compared to 1990. While males had higher incidence rates compared to females. Falls were identified as the primary cause of SCI. Trend projections up to 2030 revealed a slight decrease in ASIR for males, an upward trend in age-specific incidence rates for both sexes and a similar pattern in age-standardized YLD rates. Additionally, our findings provided crucial groundwork for shaping future policies and healthcare initiatives, with the goal of mitigating the burden of spinal cord injuries, enhancing patient outcomes, and fortifying prevention efforts.InterpretationUnderstanding the global burden of spinal cord injuries is essential for designing effective healthcare policies and prevention strategies. With the alarming increase in prevalence rates and their significant impact on individuals and healthcare systems, this research contributes vital insights to guide future efforts in reducing the incidence of spinal cord injuries, improving the quality of life for affected individuals, and reducing the economic burden on healthcare systems worldwide.

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The projections of global and regional rheumatic heart disease burden from 2020 to 2030

Cited by 17 publications

References 56 publications

Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

Global disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction up to 2030

Spinal cord injury: global burden from 1990 to 2019 and projections up to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

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