Identification of inexpensive and technically simple immunological tests useful in predicting the progression to AIDS in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients would be especially welcome in developing countries, in which 80% of the HIV-infected patients reside and health budgets are low. In the current study, we evaluated CD4 ؉ and total lymphocyte counts and the concentrations in serum of  2-microglobulin, p24 antigen, and immunoglobulin A (IgA) as predictors of disease progression in 74 Panamanian HIV-positive patients and 50 HIV-negative healthy individuals. Total lymphocyte and CD4 ؉-cell counts for AIDS patients (1,451 ؎ 811 cells/l, P < 0.001, and 238 ؎ 392 cells/l, P < 0.0001, respectively) and asymptomatic patients (2,393 ؎ 664 cells/l, P > 0.05, and 784 ؎ 475 cells/l, P < 0.001, respectively) were lower than those observed for healthy subjects (2,596 ؎ 631 cells/l and 1,120 ؎ 296 cells/l, respectively). The levels of  2-microglobulin and IgA in serum were significantly elevated in patients with AIDS (5.7 ؎ 3.6 mg/liter, P < 0.0001, and 541 ؎ 265 mg/dl, P < 0.0001, respectively) and asymptomatic infected subjects (3.4 ؎ 2.1 mg/liter, P ؍ 0.001, and 436 ؎ 216 mg/dl, P < 0.0001, respectively) compared with the levels in healthy subjects (2.2 ؎ 0.7 mg/liter and 204 ؎ 113 mg/dl, respectively). Nonstatistically significant differences (P > 0.05) for concentrations of p24 antigen between asymptomatic infected patients (29 ؎ 13 pg/ml) and AIDS patients (40 ؎ 23 pg/ml) were observed. Total lymphocyte counts of 1,750 cells/l or less, CD4 counts of 200 cells/l or less,  2-microglobulin concentrations in serum of 4 mg/liter or higher, concentrations of IgA in serum of 450 mg/dl or higher, and the presence in serum of p24 antigen were correlated with elevated risks for developing AIDS. Monitoring both total lymphocytes and  2-microglobulin identified 91% of the AIDS patients; these assays may allow reductions in the annual number of CD4 ؉-cell evaluations and the costs associated with monitoring the immune status of HIV-positive patients.