The probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability on Akyayik dam

Erdik, Tarkan; Duricic, J.; Gelder, Pieter van

doi:10.1007/s12205-013-1355-0

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…/s) 1965 12,76 1979 20,98 1993 33,95 2007 29,32 1966 14,54 1980 25,03 1994 23,37 2008 45,62 1967 21,83 1981 16,71 1995 34,80 2009 23,02 1968 21,89 1982 32,04 1996 31,70 2010 58,31 332,75 m olarak belirlenmiştir. Hazne su seviyesinin daha önceki çalışmalarda [16,17] olduğu gibi normal dağılıma sahip olduğu kabul edilmiştir. Son olarak su seviyesinin varyasyon katsayısı, COV, değeri 0,05 olarak alınmıştır.…”

Section: Beli̇rsi̇zli̇kleri̇n Anali̇zi̇ (Analysis Of Uncertainties)unclassified

“…Tr=10000 yıl için rastgele üretilen 5000 taşkın hidrografından bazı uç örnekler (Some extreme samples from randomly generated 5000 flood hydrographs for Tr = 10000 years) 332,75 m olarak belirlenmiştir. Hazne su seviyesinin daha önceki çalışmalarda [16,17] olduğu gibi normal dağılıma sahip olduğu kabul edilmiştir. Son olarak su seviyesinin varyasyon katsayısı, COV, değeri 0,05 olarak alınmıştır.…”

Section: Hazne Başlangıç Su Seviyesinin Belirsizliği (The Uncertainty Of the Reservoir Initial Level)unclassified

“…Cunnane[9] ve Bobee ve Rasmussen[10] dahi incelenmektedir[14,15]. Erdik vd [16]. iki değişkenli taşkın frekans analizi kullanarak Munzur Nehri üzerindeki Akyayık Barajı'nın üstten aşılma olasılığını hesaplamıştır.…”

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Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Çalamak¹

2017

Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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The flood induced overtopping of dams is one of the most observed failure reasons in history. In this study, the overtopping reliability of Tanyeri Dam is evaluated in a probabilistic manner. To this end, flood hydrographs having two variables and initial water level of the reservoir are randomly generated and the probability of exceedance of the dam crest elevation is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Several scenarios, including the case that both the spillway and the bottom outlet are not working, are considered and their effects on the dam overtopping reliability are assessed. According to the results, Tanyeri Dam is found to be 100% reliable when its spillway operates during a possible flood having 10000-year return period. In addition, it is shown that the maximum reservoir level observed during a flood is directly dependent on the initial water level of the reservoir.

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Section: Beli̇rsi̇zli̇kleri̇n Anali̇zi̇ (Analysis Of Uncertainties)unclassified

Section: Hazne Başlangıç Su Seviyesinin Belirsizliği (The Uncertainty Of the Reservoir Initial Level)unclassified

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Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Çalamak¹

2017

Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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“…Numerous research works on risk analysis of dam overtopping have been reported in the literature. As regards the uncertainties in overtopping risk analysis, the effects of uncertainties in flood, reservoir characteristics, outflow discharge, initial water surface level, wind velocity, dam height, and so on have been well investigated (e.g., [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]). Regarding approaches for overtopping risk analysis, a variety of approaches have been applied, such as stochastic differential equations (e.g., [14]), bivariate copula functions (e.g., [15][16][17]), sequential uncertainty fitting method (e.g., [18]), Latin hypercube sampling (e.g., [19,20]), maximum entropy method (e.g., [21]), and Bayesian network (e.g., [22][23][24]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

Liu

2020

Complexity

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For modern high earth dams, sufficient safety margin is considered in the designs of flood discharge capacity and dam crest elevation to prevent flood overtopping. However, for high earth dams which may induce catastrophic consequences, during their long operational period, extremely hazardous scenarios which could occur and threaten dam safety need to be considered. For the earth dams located in areas with intensive seismicity, there is a possible scenario that the release structures fail due to seismic landslides and gate failures caused by a severe earthquake when the flood begins to enter the reservoir. Thus, it is desirable to investigate the influence of failure duration of release structures on dam overtopping risk. Based on the Bayesian network, a methodology for overtopping risk analysis of earth dams considering effects of failure duration of release structures is proposed. The overtopping risk of the PBG earth-rockfill dam was analyzed to illustrate the methodology. The critical release structures which dominate the dam overtopping risk are identified. The dam overtopping risk is most sensitive to the failure duration of the spillway. The tolerable failure duration of the spillway is approximately 3 days, and when the failure duration of the spillway reaches 4 days, the dam overtopping risk drastically rises to an unacceptable level. The case study suggests that the proposed methodology could be helpful to analyze the influences of possible failure durations of release structures on dam overtopping risk and could facilitate preparation for emergency plans.

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“…A major issue in flood risk management studies is the assessment of probabilistic failures of the dams constructed. Hydrologic risk is the probability of failure occurring on a hydraulic structure during the service life [13]. There are two main approaches to quantitatively analyzing dam overtopping caused by flood: probabilistic risk analysis and indicatorbased risk analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Risk Assessment of Gibe III Dam by Using L-Moment

Tola¹

2019

AJWSE

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A hydrological analysis for assessing the risk of dam overtopping is required for both dam designing and dam safety checking. There is enormous amount of water to be stored in the reservoir to provide valuable service such as hydroelectric power generation and flood control. However dams can cause catastrophic damage to both life and property if they experience performance failures due to overtopping and inadequate spillway design. The hydrological risk was computed from historical peak flow data of Gilgel Gibe near Abelti, Gojeb near Shebe and Wabi near Wolkite, of major rivers flowing towards Gibe III Dam, respectively. From the flood statistics of rivers, the general extreme value (GEV) distribution was fitted to peak flow using L-moment. In this research made an attempt, the extreme event or probability of maximum discharge occurrence at dam site analyzed by associating peak occurrence with the service life of Dam and estimated the hydrological risk at Gibe III Dam. It finds PWM method is very suitable for three river flow condition flowing toward Gibe III Dam. The hydrological risk at Gibe III predicted for 50, 100 and 150 years with respect of Discharge range of 2730m 3 /s to 3180m 3 /s was observed there is a risk decreases as return period increases.

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The probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability on Akyayik dam

Cited by 9 publications

References 19 publications

Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

Hydrological Risk Assessment of Gibe III Dam by Using L-Moment

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