The Prespa Agreement: Macedonian Diplomatic Gambit or Geopolitical Game Changer

Abstract

The analysis, conducted over five years following the signing of the Prespa Agreement, aims to comprehensively evaluate its impact on the resolution of the longstanding name dispute between Macedonia and Greece and to forecast its implications amidst evolving geopolitical trends. By using a critical geopolitical lens and discourse analysis, the study will examine whether Macedonia made a wise diplomatic move by signing the agreement or whether it was a strategic tool to help the government achieve its aims of joining NATo and the eu. Concurrently, it will scrutinize the agreement's transformative role in reshaping the Western Balkans' geopolitical landscape and its consequential influence on wider regional dynamics. This perspective will illuminate potential cascading effects, encompassing the sway of other regional influences and power shifts. It is discernible that, despite being a significant milestone towards euro-Atlantic integration, the Prespa Agreement's success remains partial. despite Macedonia's accession to NATo in 2020, the agreement did not facilitate, let alone ensure, a seamless path towards eu membership. Moreover, as an example of an asymmetric agreement, Bulgaria has exploited the Prespa Agreement, using the situation to impose conditions and introduce new "unresolved" issues that challenge the Macedonian people's identity, language, and historical narrative. With this development, the Prespa Agreement has temporarily or finally lost its potential for Macedonia to move towards the eu. Macedonia's prolonged integration process may encounter fresh and formidable challenges in a turbulent and uncertain multipolar geopolitical world.