The predictive validity of risk assessment tools for female offenders: A systematic review

Abstract

Assessing an offender's risk level is important given the impact of criminal behavior on victims, the consequences for the offender, and for society more generally. A wide range of assessment tools have been developed to assess risk in offenders. However, the validity of such tools for female offenders has been questioned. We present a systematic literature review of studies examining the accuracy with which risk assessment tools can predict violence and recidivism in female offenders. Five databases were searched, reference lists of relevant publications were hand searched, and an online search engine was used to identify studies. Fifteen studies were subject to review which evaluated nine risk assessment instruments (COMPAS, CAT-SR, HCR-20, LSI, PLC-R, OGRS, RISc, RM2000V, VRAG). The quality of these studies was systematically examined using a detailed quality assessment. The review findings indicate that the most effective tool for assessing both violence and recidivism in women was the LSI. There was variability in the quality scores obtained, with studies limited by measurement issues and standards of reporting results. Future research should aim to improve the quality of studies in this area, assess predictive accuracy across subtypes of female offenders, and compare correctional and psychiatric samples independently.

A Comparison of the HCR-20V3Among Male and Female Insanity Acquittees: A Retrospective File Study

“…However, only a subset of the studies included in the meta-analysis included females (n D 11) and when compared to men, only the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (Hare, 2003) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (Hart, Cox, & Hare, 2005), neither of which were developed as a risk assessment tool, obtained larger effect sizes for women when predicting violence (Yang et al, 2010). In a more recent review of 15 studies examining the predictive validity of 12 risk assessment tools among female samples of offenders, only four measures demonstrated adequate predictive efficacy, and none of the instruments did so with a moderate to large degree of accuracy (Geraghty & Woodhams, 2015). One of the risk assessment tools that demonstrated small predictive accuracy with females was the HCR-20.…”

Psychological pre‐sentence evaluations for sentencing young offenders in Australia

“…For example, in the Australian juvenile justice system Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth are over represented (Doolan, Najman, Mills, Cherney, & Strathearn, 2013), but not all tests have been normed on these population groups. Some assessment instruments have appropriate norms but have not been normed on both male and female youth and may therefore be less accurate when used to assess young female offenders (Geraghty & Woodhams, 2015;Odgers, Moretti, & Reppucci, 2005). The evaluator needs to understand the test so he or she can articulate the test limitations and the impact of these limitations on the opinion and recommendations provided.…”

L’évaluation structurée du risque de récidive des personnes placées sous main de justice : méthodes et enjeux

“…En effet, il a été à maintes reprises mis à l'épreuve auprès de PPSMJ de sexe masculin (Olver, Stockdale, & Wormith, 2014) ou féminin (Coulson, Ilacqua, Nutbrown, Giulekas, & Cudjoe, 1996 ;Geraghty & Woodhams, 2015 ;Girard, 1999 ;Hogg, 2011 ;Rettinger, 1998), d'auteurs d'infractions issus des peuples autochtones (Andrews, Dowden, & Rettinger, 2001 ;Bonta, 1989 ;Hogg, 2011), de jeunes auteurs d'infractions de sexe masculin ou féminin (Andrews et al, 2001 ;Hoge, Andrews, & Leschied, 1995, 1996NowickaSroga, 2004 ;Shields, 1993 ;Shields & Simourd, 1991), de PPSMJ associés à des bandes urbaines (Guay, 2012) de même qu'à des PPSMJ souffrant de problèmes de santé mentale (Andrews et al, 2001 ;Bonta, Blais, & Wilson, 2014 ;Girard & Wormith, 2004). De plus, il a été utilisé à de nombreuses reprises pour les questions de classement sécuritaire en établissement et a montré une validité prédictive des incidents violents équivalente aux autres instruments spécialement conçus à cette fin (Charton, Couture-Poulin, & Guay, 2011).…”