The predictive validity of grade point average scores in a partial lottery medical school admission system

Cohen-Schotanus, Janke; Muijtjens, Arno M. M.; Reinders, Jan-Jaap; Agsteribbe, Jessica; Rossum, H.J.M. van; Vleuten, Cees P.M. van der

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2929.2006.02561.x

Cited by 45 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…For instance, in a study, involving more than 5,000 first-year students in six different subjects, it was demonstrated that a one point higher secondary education GPA doubled the chance of completing the first year within the allocated time frame (Jansen 2004). In a recent study of Dutch medical education, study delay was negatively related to the final examination GPA in secondary education: The lower the GPA, the more time needed to complete medical education (Cohen-Schotanus et al 2006). A difference in initial aptitude often emerges as the most important determinant of whether a student fails or succeeds (Arulampalam et al 2007;Astin 1997;Lindblom-Ylanne et al 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning more by being taught less: a “time-for-self-study” theory explaining curricular effects on graduation rate and study duration

et al. 2009

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In this article, an alternative for Tinto's integration theory of student persistence is proposed and tested. In the proposed theory, time available for individual study is considered a major determinant of both study duration and graduation rate of students in a particular curriculum. In this view, other activities in the curriculum, in particular lectures, constrain self-study time and therefore must have a negative impact on persistence. To test this theory, we collected study duration and graduation rate information of all-almost 14,000 students-enrolling in eight Dutch medical schools between 1989 and 1998. In addition, information was gathered regarding the timetables of each of these curricula in the particular period: lectures hours, hours spent in small-group tutorials, practicals, and time available for self-study. Structural equation modeling was used to study relations among these variables. In line with our predictions, time available for self-study was the only determinant of graduation rate and study duration. Lectures were negatively related to self-study time, negatively related to graduation rate, and positively related to study duration. The results suggest that extensive lecturing may be detrimental in higher education. However, in the curricula employing limited lecturing considerable energy was spent in supporting self-study activities of students and preventing postponement of learning. Given our findings, both activities will likely have large pay offs, in particular in curricula with low graduation rates.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning more by being taught less: a “time-for-self-study” theory explaining curricular effects on graduation rate and study duration

et al. 2009

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“…The most obvious one would be variation between student cohorts. However, in this study this effect is expected to be small, because the population of medical schools in the Netherlands is quite homogeneous due to admission by national lottery procedure among students who have successfully passed their final examinations at the required level of secondary education, which is highly comparable across the board (Cohen-Schotanus et al 2006). It is important to note that for the average cumulative deviation to be a valid indicator of the relative performance of a school, it is essential that there should be no or only a negligible systematic difference in performance between the cohorts entering the schools that are compared.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in knowledge development exposed by multi-curricular progress test data

Muijtjens

Cohen-Schotanus

Vleuten

2007

Adv in Health Sci Educ

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Progress testing provides data on the growth of students' knowledge over the course of the curriculum obtained from the results of all students in the curriculum on periodical similar tests pitched at end-of-curriculum level. Since 2001, three medical schools have jointly constructed and administered four progress tests annually. All students in the 6-year undergraduate curricula of these schools take the same tests resulting in 24 distinct measurements per academic year (four tests for six student year groups), which may be used to compare performance between and within schools. Because single point measurements had proven unreliable, we devised a method to use cumulative information to compare schools' test performance. This cumulative deviation method involves calculation of the deviations of schools' scores from the cross-institutional average score for 24 measurement moments in 1 year. The current study shows that it appears to be feasible to use a combination of the cumulative deviation method and trend analysis for subdomains of medical knowledge to detect strengths and weaknesses in knowledge development in medical curricula. We illustrate the method by applying it to data from 16 consecutive progress tests administered to all students (4,300) of three medical schools in the academic years

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“…35 Finally, many authors who undertake the subject of dropping out of medical studies showed no intergender differences in this area. 36,37 An indepth analysis concerning intergender differences in the achieved learning outcomes suggests that they may be conditioned by a greater conscientiousness, more diligent work during exercises, more diligent attendance in women than men. 38 However, in the context of a potential influence of gender in the students of phar macy, further studies are necessary which would provide evidence supporting the thesis that this demographic variable is important when predicting attrition.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Attritionfrom Master of Science in Pharmacy Degree Program: 15-year Predictive Evaluation.

Pańczyk¹,

Rebandel²,

Belowska³

et al. 2016

IJPER

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A model of logistic regression was used to evaluate predictive factors that are of potential influence on the risk of the delayed graduation or attrition. Results: For the model with the outcome variable "timely/delayed graduation" it was found that men bear nearly twice as big a risk of a delayed graduation than women (OR=1.978; P=0.004). It was also observed that students recruited within a new system of admission have almost 10 times greater chances for a delayed graduation as opposed students from the years recruited on the basis of old regulations (OR=10.224; P<0.001). Moreover, for a regression model based on the outcome variable" timely graduation/attrition", it was also noted that men bear a greater risk of attrition than women (OR=3.621; P<0.001) and that students recruited within a new system as opposed to the old one (OR=23.734; P<0.001). Also, good predictive ability was found for both recruitment criteria when evaluating the risk of attrition (OR for biology and chemistry was 0.974 and 0.958, respectively). Additionally, it was observed the risk of attrition and failure to complete studies was age on entry (OR=1.154; P=0.05). Conclusion: The obtained results of the predictive analysis allow determining a profile of a student who bears a high risk of attrition during studies at the pharmacy department: man who began his studies at least one after completing secondary school and achieved a score in chemistry and biology below the average compared to other candidates accepted to this faculty.

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The predictive validity of grade point average scores in a partial lottery medical school admission system

Cited by 45 publications

References 17 publications

Learning more by being taught less: a “time-for-self-study” theory explaining curricular effects on graduation rate and study duration

Learning more by being taught less: a “time-for-self-study” theory explaining curricular effects on graduation rate and study duration

Differences in knowledge development exposed by multi-curricular progress test data

Risk of Attritionfrom Master of Science in Pharmacy Degree Program: 15-year Predictive Evaluation.

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