The predictability of the "Voyager" accident

Abstract

Abstract. On 14 February 2005 a severe mistral storm caused substantial damage to the passenger cruiser "Voyager" between Balearic Islands and Sardinia. The storm had been well predicted. However, the ship was hit by one or more, apparently unexpected, large waves. Our aim was to understand if this was a freak event or it was within the expectable probability. At this aim we use our best estimate of the local wave conditions, obtained combining modelling and measured data. Starting from these we derive the probability of large waves, considering both linear and non-linear cases. Notwithstanding a correction towards the worse of the, otherwise inconsistent, available reports, on the basis of the data at disposal we conclude that, given the local conditions, the event was within the range of the potentially expectable wave heights. This turns out to be even more the case on the basis of recent results based on theoretical and experimental data.

Global ship accidents and ocean swell-related sea states

“…A sea state with a narrow wave spectrum was observed during several major ship accidents, including the Voyager accident (Bertotti and Cavaleri, 2008), the Suwa Maru incident (Tamura et al, 2009), the Louis Majesty accident (Cavaleri et al, 2012) and the Onomichi Maru incident Waseda et al, 2014). Studies have assumed that the narrowed wave spectrum is primarily generated by the nonlinear coupling of swell and wind sea (or swell and swell) (Bertotti and Cavaleri, 2008;Tamura et al, 2009;Cavaleri et al, 2012;Waseda et al, 2012).…”

“…Studies have assumed that the narrowed wave spectrum is primarily generated by the nonlinear coupling of swell and wind sea (or swell and swell) (Bertotti and Cavaleri, 2008;Tamura et al, 2009;Cavaleri et al, 2012;Waseda et al, 2012). During such wave couplings, the wave energy from one wave system (wind sea or swell) is enhanced and transferred to the other wave system (usually a swell) (Tamura et al, 2009;Waseda et al, 2014).…”

High-resolution wave model validation over the Greek maritime areas

“…Strong wind may cause heavy wave conditions which may be the cause of maritime disasters as described by Bertotti and Cavaleri (2008). The wind can be very strong, especially in the westerly part of the basin.…”

Trend analysis of wave storminess: wave direction and its impact on harbour agitation

“…Although some strong events are controlled by larger-scale synoptic activity, local topography has a significant impact on the wind climate and therefore on the wave field (Bertotti and Cavaleri, 2008). Waves are further modified by the irregular bathymetry of the zone .…”