The Power of Expert Opinion in Ecological Models Using Bayesian Methods: Impact of Grazing on Birds

Martin, Tara G.; Kuhnert, Petra M.; Mengersen, Kerrie; Possingham, Hugh P.

doi:10.1890/03-5400

Cited by 195 publications

(192 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Ecologists have used Bayesian priors and metaanalyses to combine information from different sources (Downing et al 1999, Hedges et al 1999, Ellison 2004, McCarthy 2007 Martin et al 2005). In this study, informative priors provided support for our estimates through similarities between estimates of relative survival with and without the use of prior information, and similarities between the prior information and estimates of apparent annual survival.…”

Section: Informative Priorsmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…A number of ecological studies have improved the precision of model estimates by including Bayesian informative priors (e.g., Martin et al 2005, McCarthy and Masters 2005, McCarthy et al 2008). In our study, there was a small but noticeable improvement in precision for estimates of apparent annual survival rates when some prior information was included compared with using vague priors, but there was little or no improvement in the precision of the relative apparent survival rate when informative priors were used.…”

Section: Informative Priorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence that a Highway Reduces Apparent Survival Rates of Squirrel Gliders

McCall¹,

McCarthy²,

Ree³

et al. 2010

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Roads and traffic are prominent components of most landscapes throughout the world, and their negative effects on the natural environment can extend for hundreds or thousands of meters beyond the road. These effects include mortality of wildlife due to collisions with vehicles, pollution of soil and air, modification of wildlife behavior in response to noise, creation of barriers to wildlife movement, and establishment of dispersal conduits for some plant and animal species. In southeast Australia, much of the remaining habitat for the squirrel glider, Petaurus norfolcensis, is located in narrow strips of Eucalyptus woodland that is adjacent to roads and streams, as well as in small patches of woodland vegetation that is farther from roads. We evaluated the effect of traffic volume on squirrel gliders by estimating apparent annual survival rates of adults along the Hume Freeway and nearby low-traffic-volume roads. We surveyed populations of squirrel gliders by trapping them over 2.5 years, and combined these data with prior information on apparent survival rates in populations located away from freeways to model the ratio of apparent annual survival rates in both site types. The apparent annual survival rate of adult squirrel gliders living along the Hume Freeway was estimated to be approximately 60% lower than for squirrel gliders living near local roads. The cause of the reduced apparent survival rate may be due to higher rates of mortality and/or higher emigration rates adjacent to the Hume Freeway compared with populations near smaller country roads. Management options for population persistence will be influenced by which of these factors is the primary cause of a reduced apparent survival rate.

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Section: Informative Priorsmentioning

confidence: 61%

Section: Informative Priorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence that a Highway Reduces Apparent Survival Rates of Squirrel Gliders

McCall¹,

McCarthy²,

Ree³

et al. 2010

E&S

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Examination of the frequencies of counts of animal observations demonstrated that the data included more zeros than can be expected from either a Poisson or a negative binomial distribution. A high frequency of zeros can arise in several ways (Kuhnert et al 2005, Martin et al 2005a). Structural zeros result from an ecological effect; for example, a strong seasonal or environmental gradient causes some sites to have no animals present in one season or under particular conditions (e.g., heavy hunting).…”

Section: Zip Models To Model Animal Guild Densitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decoupling the effects of logging and hunting on an Afrotropical animal community

Poulsen

Clark

Bolker

2011

Ecological Applications

109

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Abstract. In tropical forests, hunting nearly always accompanies logging. The entangled nature of these disturbances complicates our ability to resolve applied questions, such as whether secondary and degraded forest can sustain populations of tropical animals. With the expansion of logging in central Africa, conservation depends on knowledge of the individual and combined impacts of logging and hunting on animal populations. Our goals were (1) to decouple the effects of selective logging and hunting on densities of animal guilds, including apes, duikers, monkeys, elephant, pigs, squirrels, and large frugivorous and insectivorous birds and (2) to compare the relative importance of these disturbances to the effects of local-scale variation in forest structure and fruit abundance. In northern Republic of Congo, we surveyed animals along 30 transects positioned in forest disturbed by logging and hunting, logging alone, and neither logging nor hunting. While sampling transects twice per month for two years, we observed 47 179 animals of 19 species and eight guilds in 1154 passages (2861 km). Species densities varied by as much as 480% among forest areas perturbed by logging and/or hunting, demonstrating the strong effects of these disturbances on populations of some species. Densities of animal guilds varied more strongly with disturbance type than with variation in forest structure, canopy cover, and fruit abundance. Independently, logging and hunting decreased density of some guilds and increased density of others: densities varied from 44% lower (pigs) to 90% higher (insectivorous birds) between logged and unlogged forest and from 61% lower (apes) to 77% higher (frugivorous birds) between hunted and unhunted forest. Their combined impacts exacerbated decreases in populations of some guilds (ape, duiker, monkey, and pig), but counteracted one another for others (squirrels, insectivorous and frugivorous birds). Together, logging and hunting shifted the relative abundance of the animal community away from large mammals toward squirrels and birds. Logged forest, even in the absence of hunting, does not maintain similar densities as unlogged forest for most animal guilds. To balance conservation with the need for economic development and wild meat in tropical countries, landscapes should be spatially managed to include protected areas, community hunting zones, and production forest.

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“…Rapid assessment projects draw on distributed expertise to gather the best existing knowledge about an emerging issue when decisions need to be made before scientific consensus is reached (Howarth et al 2009). Further, key stakeholders' perspectives on emerging issues have been used in a variety of settings to guide decisions of importance (Government Accountability Office 2008;Goodman 2007;Martin et al 2005). This study's key stakeholders included scientists and farmers.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of cellulosic ethanol industry sustainability based on industry configurations

Cruse¹,

Herndl²,

Polush³

et al. 2012

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

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Thirty six billion gallons of renewable fuel is US government-mandated by 2022, of which approximately 21 billion gallons will originate from cellulosic sources. This presents a challenge to the cellulosic biofuel industry, although it provides a window of opportunity to bring vision, policy, and science together to guide the industry's sustainable development. The objective of this research was to utilize current scientific knowledge and farmers' practical experience to identify basic characteristics of the cellulosic biofuel industry that will allow it to be most functional and sustainable, such that policy might be developed, if needed, to favorably shape the industry. This study's key participants included 14 scientists actively engaged in biofuel research and 44 farmers or agriculture professionals. The methods used in this study included (1) an integrated open forum and focus group discussions with scientists and (2) a triangulation of a survey and focus group discussion with farmers. Environmental, social, technological, and logistics criteria for four conversion facility configurations were assessed. Scientists assessed multiple-feedstock-species configurations more favorably than single-species configurations for environmental metrics and high/stable feedstock production. They also assessed distributed units as having fewer logistic challenges than centralized processing units. Distributed multiple-species configurations were also assessed to have greater rural development opportunity than other configurations. In contrast, the centralized singlespecies configuration was consistently assessed as not different from, or less favorable than, the other three configurations for all of the criteria assessed. Farmers have a significant need and desire for education about the emerging cellulosic biofuel industry but anticipated environmental challenges associated with single-species conversion platforms.Key words: cellulosic biofuels-rapid assessment-natural resources-water quality Renewable liquid fuel goals for the United States are based on a combination of fuels produced from starch, oil seed crops, and cellulose. The biodiesel-and starchbased ethanol industries are arguably fully developed, although there may be future market-based expansion or contractions. While this segment of our renewable liquid fuel portfolio is significant, it is overshadowed by the expected ethanol contribution from cellulosic sources (CAST 2007;Perlack et al. 2005). Thirty six billion gallons of renewable fuel is currently mandated by 2022 (Energy and Natural Resources Committee 2007), of which approximately 21 billion gallons will originate from cellulosic sources, assuming suitably rapid development of this technology occurs. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 indicates that cellulosic ethanol will enter the market in substantial quantities by about 2016 (Sissine 2007), but in 2011, there were few independent commercial suppliers of this fuel. This presents a challenge to the cellulosic biofuel industry, ...

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The Power of Expert Opinion in Ecological Models Using Bayesian Methods: Impact of Grazing on Birds

Cited by 195 publications

References 74 publications

Evidence that a Highway Reduces Apparent Survival Rates of Squirrel Gliders

Evidence that a Highway Reduces Apparent Survival Rates of Squirrel Gliders

Decoupling the effects of logging and hunting on an Afrotropical animal community

An assessment of cellulosic ethanol industry sustainability based on industry configurations

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