The potential role of wild and feral animals as reservoirs of foot-and-mouth disease

Ward, Michael P.; Laffan, Shawn W.; Highfield, Linda

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.01.009

Cited by 57 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…FMDV can infect deer and feral swine and establishment in these 585 populations could substantially complicate eradication efforts (Ward et al, 2007). 586…”

Section: General Discussion 385mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the impact of vaccination control strategies on a foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Central United States

McReynolds

Sanderson

Reeves

et al. 2014

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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“…FMDV can infect deer and feral swine and establishment in these 585 populations could substantially complicate eradication efforts (Ward et al, 2007). 586…”

Section: General Discussion 385mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the impact of vaccination control strategies on a foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Central United States

McReynolds

Sanderson

Reeves

et al. 2014

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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“…In areas of the United States where livestock are extensively grazed, the potential for interaction with susceptible wildlife species, such as white-tailed deer, is high [37]. Deer move through and forage in fields between farms, and enter premises with animal feed and slurry [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Deer move through and forage in fields between farms, and enter premises with animal feed and slurry [34]. Additionally, supplemental feeding of white-tailed deer for hunting purposes is common [37]. Given the widespread distribution of wildlife species susceptible to FMD virus infection and the potential for interaction with livestock, modeling the spread of the disease in wildlife populations is an important resource in our ability to predict, respond to and recover from a foreign animal disease incursion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representation of animal distributions in space: how geostatistical estimates impact simulation modeling of foot-and-mouth disease spread

2008

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-Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion. To make spatial epidemic predictions, the target animal species of interest must first be represented in space. We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated using a susceptible-infected-recovered geographic automata model. The study region was a 9-county area (24 000 km 2 ) of southern Texas. Methods used for creating deer distributions included dasymetric mapping, kriging and remotely sensed image analysis. The magnitudes and distributions of the predicted outbreaks were evaluated by comparing the median number of deer infected and median area affected (km 2 ), respectively. The methods were further evaluated for similar predictive power by comparing the model predicted outputs with unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering. There were significant differences in the estimated number of deer in the study region, based on the geostatistical estimation procedure used (range: 385 939-768 493). There were also substantial differences in the predicted magnitude of the FMD outbreaks (range: 1 563-8 896) and land area affected (range: 56-447 km 2 ) for the different estimated animal distributions. UPGMA clustering indicated there were two main groups of distributions, and one outlier. We recommend that one distribution from each of these two groups be used to model the range of possible outbreaks. Methods included in cluster 1 (such as county-level disaggregation) could be used in conjunction with any of the methods in cluster 2, which included kriging, NDVI split by ecoregion, or disaggregation at the regional level, to represent the variability in the model predicted outbreak distributions. How animal populations are represented needs to be considered in all spatial disease spread models.spatial modeling / epidemic modeling / deer density / sensitivity analysis

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“…However, animal population, distribution and movement data on wild or feral animal populations is scarce. Recent work [7,17,33] uses spatial models to estimate transmission of foot-and-mouth disease among feral pig and deer populations, in Queensland, Australia and Texas, USA. These researchers utilise a cellular automata technique, dividing the landscape into a discrete grid of cells [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models are used to examine the effects of various containment or eradication strategies, namely culling, vaccination and movement bans. Spatial simulation models based on cellular automata have also been developed for wild [7,17,33] and domestic [12] animal populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mobility model for classical swine fever in feral pig populations

Milne

Fermanis²,

Johnston³

2008

Vet. Res.

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-We present a simulation model which explicitly captures the movement of wild animals over the landscape and the effect which herd mobility has on the temporal and spatial course of an epidemic. Using the example of classical swine fever in feral pig populations in the tropical savannas, we demonstrate that seasonal factors influencing population density and movement patterns are an important factor in the transmission of the disease. Pig population density is much greater at the start of the dry season than at the start of the wet season, with an epidemic most likely to occur if initiated at the start of the dry season. Spatial heterogeneity due to scarcity of water in the dry season causes herds to congregate around water sources. This concentration of herds, and the consequential isolation of sub-populations, reduces overall disease transmission compared with a model where the population is more evenly distributed over the landscape. The presence of adult male pig herds, which travel over greater distances than family herds, is shown to increase the overall scale of an outbreak in the dry season by connecting together otherwise isolated family herds. Eradication strategies are more likely to be successful in the dry season if they target long-range adult male herds. Our simulation method is generic and is equally applicable to other diseases where the host species is mobile. classical swine fever / disease modelling / simulation / spatial model / feral and wild animal populations

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The potential role of wild and feral animals as reservoirs of foot-and-mouth disease

Cited by 57 publications

References 36 publications

Modeling the impact of vaccination control strategies on a foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Central United States

Modeling the impact of vaccination control strategies on a foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Central United States

Representation of animal distributions in space: how geostatistical estimates impact simulation modeling of foot-and-mouth disease spread

A mobility model for classical swine fever in feral pig populations

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