The potential impact of Covid-19 on the Irish housing sector

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to examine the implications for the Irish housing market of the economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 virus. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, an inverted demand function for housing is augmented to include a residential market activity variable and estimate the impact on house prices of the decline in economic activity due to the virus-related measures. The likely future path of house prices based on two different recovery scenarios is also examined. Under both scenarios house prices are forecast to decline in the near term. Findings The scenario analysis presented here indicates that Irish house prices are set to fall over the next 18 months as a result of the Covid-19 downturn. This contraction in prices is due to the decline in household disposable income and the sharp fall-off in mortgage market activity, which will inevitably result from the administrative closedown implemented by the Irish authorities. Originality/value As such the approach builds on several studies which have examined both house price movements in general and the relationship between house prices and mortgage credit availability. The paper also draws on the latest analysis of the implications for the Irish economy of Covid-19 and the related administrative closure methods introduced by the public authorities.

Real Estate Market Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis: Which Prospects for the Metropolitan Area of Naples (Italy)?

“…In the first phase of the pandemic, all business activities ceased, except for essential services such as food provision, pharmacies and manufacturing. The closures led to negative impacts on consumption, investments and trade, causing a demand and supply shock [6]. Most people were "stuck" in their own homes because of the "stay-at-home" measures implemented by governments [7].…”

Çok Tarafli Perspekti̇ften Covi̇d-19 Önlemleri̇ni̇n Diş Ti̇caret İşlemleri̇ne Etki̇si̇ni̇n Değerlendi̇ri̇lmesi̇

“…Covid 19 salgını dünyada birçok alanda etkiler bırakmıştır. Literatür incelendiğinde Covid-19'un eğitim üzerindeki etkilerinin (Joshi, 2021:1-20;Azorín, 2020: 381-390;Dikmen & Bahçeci, 2020:78-98), davranışsal etkilerinin (Jiao vd., .2020:221-264;Tekin, 2020Tekin, :1129Tekin, -1145, sağlık sektörüne etkilerinin (Grotz vd., 2020:261-269), gıda sektörüne etkilerinin (Şen, 2020:89-100), spor sektörüne etkilerinin (Arısoy vd., 2020:55-63;Ratten, 2020Ratten, :1379Ratten, -1388, konut sektörüne etkilerinin (Allen-Coghlan & McQuinn, 2020), bankacılık sektörüne etkilerinin (Haq & Awan, 2020:39-55), tarım sektörüne etkilerinin ( Cao vd., 2020:22-39), turizm sektörüne etkilerinin (Acar, 2020:7-21;Bahar & İlal Çelik, 2020:108-122;Demir vd., 2020:80-107), havacılık sektörüne etkilerinin (Akca, 2020:45-64, Eccles, 2020 araştırıldığı görülmektedir.…”

Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Residential Market in Prague

“…A study by Allen-Coghlan and McQuinn (2020) [3] analyses the effects of the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the Irish housing market. The authors expect that the decline in economic activity will cause a decline in house prices.…”