The Potential for Increasing Fertility and the Family Demographic Policy of Russia

Ilin, Vladimir; Shabunova, Alexandra; Kalachikova, Ol'ga

doi:10.1134/s1019331621050038

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…В основном можно говорить о косвенном влиянии, оказываемом факторами в большей или меньшей степени. Важным косвенным фактором рождаемости и смертности является благосостояние населения, получаемый денежный доход, уровень потребления [9][10][11]. Существенной мерой стали выплаты материнского капитала семьям, в которых появляется ребенок (Федеральный закон «О дополнительных мерах государственной поддержки семей, имеющих детей» от 29.12.2006 №256-ФЗ) [12,13].…”

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The Consumption effect on the Birth Rate Growth and the Mortality Reductionin Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the Russian Federation Regions

Ketova,

Vavilova

2024

Intellekt. Sist. Proizv.

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The social and economic development sustainability depends on the numerical reproduction of population. Here, an important factor is the populationwelfare, the income received or the level of consumption. The possibility of a birth rate increase and a mortality decrease in the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the consumption variation is being studiedin this article. The information base of the research contains official statistical data on the indicators of birth rate, mortality and per capita consumption of the population in the Russian Federation’s regions. Numerical analysis and modeling of birth rate and mortality dependence on consumption were carried out according to the data reflected in the federal statistical accounting system for the period of 2011-2021 for 85 regions of the Russian Federation. The article considers techniques, algorithms and methods of mathematical and statistical modeling.The calculations of birth rate and mortality dependence on the per capita consumption factor made it possible to distinguish three main clusters among the regions of the Russian Federation.The first cluster with a specific monthly consumption of 13-46 thousand rubles contains 75 regions. The second cluster consists of regions with a specific monthly consumption of 13 thousand rubles and less. It includes Altai, Dagestan, Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Kalmykia, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Mordovia, Tyva, the Chechen Republic. The third cluster includes the city of Moscow with the highest specific consumption in the Russian Federation (over 51 thousand rubles per month). Consumption values are calculated at comparable 2021 prices.The study revealed that for areas with average consumer spending, a 2-fold increase in consumption will increase the birth rate by 16.3% and reduce mortality by 15.9%.The obtained functions of a possible increase in the birth rate and reduction of mortality of the population can be used for demographic forecasts, as well as socio-economic development strategies

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Section: Urlunclassified

The Consumption effect on the Birth Rate Growth and the Mortality Reductionin Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the Russian Federation Regions

Ketova,

Vavilova

2024

Intellekt. Sist. Proizv.

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“…Математическая оценка этого влияния представляет собой сложную задачу. Детерминанты рождаемости в российских семьях частично исследованы в работах [6][7][8]. Среди прочих факторов в этих работах исследуется уровень доходов и материального благополучия семей.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Econometric Modeling of the Maternity Capital Factor Effect on the Birth Rate in the Region

Ketova,

Vavilova,

Cherepanova

2023

Intellekt. Sist. Proizv.

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The article is devoted to assessment and modeling the maternity capital factor effect on the birth rate in one of the Russian Federation regions- the Udmurt Republic. The information base for the research is official the statistical data on a set of demographic indicators within the region for the period of 1990-2021. A structural-dynamic analysis of the birth rate is carried out. An indicator reflecting the number of births per 1,000 people of the population, as well as per 1,000 women of childbearing age, is calculated and analyzed for the period under review. Curves of birth distribution coefficients for the social and economic system of the Udmurt Republic by the mother age in the context of the territory are plotted. It has been established that in the region there are significant differences in birth rates in urban and rural areas. Econometric modeling is carried out to identify the relationship between the birth rate and the maternity capital factor. Econometric models of time series are constructed with the introduction of a fictitious binary variable, taking the values 0 - before the introduction of maternity capital, 1 - after the introduction of maternity capital. The identification of model parameters and statistical verification of the significance of the coefficient of the dummy variable are performed. The study is conducted both in the division by the type of settlement, and in the division by mothers’ age. It was found that maternity capital increases the average annual birth rate in urban areas by 15.2 %, and in rural areas - by 16.5%. Econometric modeling results disaggregated by maternal age show an increase in the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. Before the introduction of maternity capital, there were on average 36 children per 1,000 women of childbearing age in the UR, while after the introduction - 43 children.

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The Potential for Increasing Fertility and the Family Demographic Policy of Russia

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

The Consumption effect on the Birth Rate Growth and the Mortality Reductionin Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the Russian Federation Regions

The Consumption effect on the Birth Rate Growth and the Mortality Reductionin Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the Russian Federation Regions

Econometric Modeling of the Maternity Capital Factor Effect on the Birth Rate in the Region

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