The post‐2002 global surface warming slowdown caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration

Oka, Akira

doi:10.1002/2016gl072184

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The common view is that the Pacific Ocean plays a substantial role in modulating GMST. The Indian (Luo et al, 2012) and Southern Oceans (Oka & Watanabe, 2017) may also play a role. However, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) has also been linked with GMST changes (Chylek et al, 2016;Mann et al, 2014;Pasini et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2017), as have the AMV in combination with Pacific variability (Dong & Zhou, 2014;Nagy et al, 2017;Steinman et al, 2015;Stolpe et al, 2017;Yao et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) has also been linked with GMST changes (Chylek et al, 2016;Mann et al, 2014;Pasini et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2017), as have the AMV in combination with Pacific variability (Dong & Zhou, 2014;Nagy et al, 2017;Steinman et al, 2015;Stolpe et al, 2017;Yao et al, 2016). The Indian (Luo et al, 2012) and Southern Oceans (Oka & Watanabe, 2017) may also play a role. This study focuses on the two dominant patterns of internal variability at decadal and multidecadal time scales: the IPO and AMV.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Kajtar

Collins

Frankcombe

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global mean surface temperature (GMST) fluctuates over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Patterns of internal variability are partly responsible, but the relationships can be conflated by anthropogenically forced signals. Here we adopt a physically based method of separating internal variability from forced responses to examine how trends in large‐scale patterns, specifically the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), influence GMST. After removing the forced responses, observed variability of GMST is close to the central estimates of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, but models tend to underestimate IPO variability at time scales >10 years, and AMV at time scales >20 years. Correlations between GMST trends and these patterns are also underrepresented, most strongly at 10‐ and 35‐year time scales, for IPO and AMV, respectively. Strikingly, models that simulate stronger variability of IPO and AMV also exhibit stronger relationships between these patterns and GMST, predominately at the 10‐ and 35‐year time scales, respectively.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Kajtar

Collins

Frankcombe

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Most wind-stress studies use ERA-interim, for which the robustness of tropical Pacific wind trends has been evaluated against several observational datasets (de Boisséson et al 2014), but it is limited to the period after 1979. Watanabe et al (2014), Oka and Watanabe (2017), and Svendsen et al (2018) use JRA-55 and 20CR which cover a longer period.…”

Section: Comparison Of Methods To Quantify the Pacific Imprint On Gmstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

show abstract

“…We conducted numerical experiments by using an EMIC named MIROC‐lite (Oka et al., 2011; Oka & Watanabe, 2017). MIROC‐lite is composed of (a) a three‐dimensional ocean general circulation model (Hasumi, 2006) coupled with a dynamical sea‐ice model and (b) a one‐layer atmospheric energy balance model.…”

Section: Model and Numerical Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hysteresis of the Glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Controlled by Thermal Feedbacks

Ando

Oka

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. The AMOC is considered to have been deeply related to climate changes through its northward heat transport in the North Atlantic, especially during the glacial climate. The ice core records in Greenland (Andersen et al., 2004;Dansgaard et al., 1982) provide evidence of repeated abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. However, the detailed mechanism of the changes in the glacial AMOC remains unclear.The AMOC has the potential to show multiple equilibrium states, which can cause hysteresis behavior and abrupt climate changes. The bistability of a thermohaline circulation was first identified in a simple two-box model of Stommel (1961), and it was confirmed in various models, ranging from a simple ocean box model to an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM;

show abstract

The post‐2002 global surface warming slowdown caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration

Cited by 13 publications

References 49 publications

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

Hysteresis of the Glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Controlled by Thermal Feedbacks

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About