The population sizes and global extinction risk of reef-building coral species at biogeographic scales

Dietzel, Andreas; Bode, M. F.; Connolly, Sean R.; Hughes, Terry P.

doi:10.1038/s41559-021-01393-4

Cited by 43 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…22,52,53 Coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef have been experiencing bleaching events at unprecedented frequency, threatening their persistence, 35,54 and recent research ll suggests that the most vulnerable species of coral are increasingly rare, and the species that persist are more tolerant of warming conditions. 55,56 These observations fit with the global trend of decline in coral cover during the 1950s to 1970s, followed by a reduced decline since the 1980s (Figure 1A). There have been efforts to restore coral reefs by transplanting them, cooling them with underwater pumps, manipulating genome, and employing robots to spread coral larvae; however, nothing yet has shown promise to be effective at the landscape scale that would be required to make a meaningful impact.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Global decline in capacity of coral reefs to provide ecosystem services

et al. 2021

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Global decline in capacity of coral reefs to provide ecosystem services Highlights d Coral reef habitat, biodiversity, fisheries, effort, and food-web impacts are evaluated d Global coverage of living coral has declined by half since the 1950s d Catch of coral reef associate fishes per unit effort has decreased by 60% since 1950 d Coral reefs' capacity to provide ecosystem services has declined by half since the 1950s

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Global decline in capacity of coral reefs to provide ecosystem services

et al. 2021

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“…The identified shifts in evolutionary rates point to the Pliocene–Pleistocene as a key period for the formation of modern reef-building coral species richness. Therefore, to further explore this accumulation of diversity, we focused on species that are classified as reef-associated and examined the evolution of coral families that are: (i) abundant on present-day reefs (Acroporidae, Agariciidae, Merulinidae, Mussidae, Pocilloporidae, and Poritidae) 18 ; and (ii) have a high number of occurrences in the fossil record. We estimated fossil diversity trajectories through time 12 for each of these six families separately.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast-growing species shape the evolution of reef corals

2022

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Ecological interactions are ubiquitous on tropical coral reefs, where sessile organisms coexist in limited space. Within these high-diversity systems, reef-building scleractinian corals form an intricate interaction network. The role of biotic interactions among reef corals is well established on ecological timescales. However, its potential effect on macroevolutionary patterns remains unclear. By analysing the rich fossil record of Scleractinia, we show that reef coral biodiversity experienced marked evolutionary rate shifts in the last 3 million years, possibly driven by biotic interactions. Our models suggest that there was an overwhelming effect of staghorn corals (family Acroporidae) on the fossil diversity trajectories of other coral groups. Staghorn corals showed an unparalleled spike in diversification during the Pleistocene. But surprisingly, their expansion was linked with increases in both extinction and speciation rates in other coral families, driving a nine-fold increase in lineage turnover. These results reveal a double-edged effect of diversity dependency on reef evolution. Given their fast growth, staghorn corals may have increased extinction rates via competitive interactions, while promoting speciation through their role as ecosystem engineers. This suggests that recent widespread human-mediated reductions in staghorn coral cover, may be disrupting the key macroevolutionary processes that established modern coral reef ecosystems.

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“…Although our model is likely to identify vulnerable coral species correctly, the severity of near‐time extinction risk is unclear. Irrespective of the modelled extinction risk or assessed conservation status, the extinction of reef corals is unlikely to be severe in the near future, simply because population sizes of even “rare” species are way above typical extinction‐prone species (Dietzel et al., 2021), although this could change rapidly as thermal stress intensifies (Hughes et al., 2018). Practitioners in conservation science are, of course, more interested in decadal changes (Kiessling et al., 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Morphological traits of reef corals predict extinction risk but not conservation status

Raja

Lauchstedt

Pandolfi

et al. 2021

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim The current assessment of extinction risk in reef corals by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has been criticized, because coral life‐history traits associated with resilience are not reflected in the conservation status. We aimed to carry out a quantitative assessment of the link between reef coral traits and species extinction risk informed by extinctions of reef corals observed in the fossil record. Location Global. Time period Plio‐Pleistocene and present day. Major taxa studied Scleractinian reef corals. Methods We used morphological traits, phylogenetic information and evidence of extinction during the Plio‐Pleistocene to predict the extinction risk of contemporary reef corals. Our model was trained using 138 Caribbean fossil coral species and an automatic machine learning algorithm. We then used this model to predict the extinction risk of 674 modern coral species. Results Model validation confirmed 77% accuracy in predicting extinction risk of fossil corals. Extinction risk predicted by our model showed a near‐random (57%) match with the IUCN conservation status. Our model also suggested that corals in the Least Concern or Near Threatened categories might be at higher risk of extinction than currently believed. Main conclusions Morphological traits of fossil corals linked to their extinction risk in the Plio‐Pleistocene Caribbean Sea are known to reflect the vulnerability of extant corals. However, the results from our fossil‐calibrated model do not match the IUCN assessment of reef corals, with increased overall extinction risk. This does not necessarily indicate near‐future extinction risk, because fossil extinctions are spread over thousands of years. However, we show the applicability of using fossil data to inform the extinction risk of modern corals and recommend that future assessments of extinction risk of reef corals should consider incorporating the relationship between morphological traits and resilience, calibrated by fossil data, to maximize the utility of the extinction risk assessment.

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The population sizes and global extinction risk of reef-building coral species at biogeographic scales

Cited by 43 publications

References 53 publications

Global decline in capacity of coral reefs to provide ecosystem services

Global decline in capacity of coral reefs to provide ecosystem services

Fast-growing species shape the evolution of reef corals

Morphological traits of reef corals predict extinction risk but not conservation status

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