The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000

Nepomuceno, Marília R.; Turra, Cássio M.

doi:10.1111/padr.12355

Cited by 17 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Turra (2012) has claimed that the pattern of mortality at older ages in Brazil, characterized by rates relatively lower than in high-income countries, reflects age exaggeration. Recent findings have corroborated his argument (Nepomuceno and Turra 2020;Di Lego, Turra, and Cesar 2017). Also, the excess of centenarians in official Brazilian data is consistent with age misreporting due to delayed birth registration during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (Nepomuceno and Turra 2020;Gomes and Turra 2014).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Age reporting in the Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination database: What can we learn from it?

Turra

Fernandes

Calazans

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Age is a key variable for sciences and public planning. The demographic consequences of not measuring age correctly are manifold, including errors in mortality rates and population estimates, particularly at older ages. It also affects public programs because target populations depend on reliable population age distributions. In Brazil, the start of the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 marked the collection of new administrative data. Every citizen must be registered and need to show an identity document to get vaccinated. The requirement of proof-of-age documentation provides a unique opportunity for measuring the elderly population using a different database. This article examines the reliability of age distributions of men and women 80 years and older. We calculate various demographic indicators using data from the vaccination registration system and compare them to those from the target population estimates of the National Vaccination Plan, censuses, and population projections for Brazil and countries with high-quality population data. We show that requiring proof-of-age, such as in the vaccination records, increases data quality, mainly through the reduction of age heaping and age exaggeration. However, I.D. cards cannot fully solve wrong birth dates that result from weak historical registration systems. Thus, one should be careful when using estimates of the old age population living in some of the Brazilian regions, particularly the North, Northeast, and Center-West. Also, our analysis reveals a mismatch between the projected population by age, sex, and region, which guided the vaccination plan, and the number of vaccinated at ages 80 and older. The methodology developed to adjust the mortality rates used in the demographic projections is probably the main factor behind the disparities found.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Age reporting in the Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination database: What can we learn from it?

Turra

Fernandes

Calazans

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Not only the number of elderlies is increasing around the world, but today they expect to live much longer (7). In the case of Brazil, recent data shows that the country has experienced an unprecedent demographic process of aging of its population when compared to more developed countries although it is not clear which is the real size of elderly population (specially centenarians) due to incorrect recording of age over the years and the quality of data (8). In this scenario, a first challenge we still have to face is to define what healthy aging is.…”

Section: Senieur Protocol Criticisms and Criteria To Recognize Aginmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflammaging in Endemic Areas for Infectious Diseases

et al. 2020

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Immunosenescence is marked by a systemic process named inflammaging along with a series of defects in the immunological activity that results in poor responses to infectious agents and to vaccination. Inflammaging, a state of low-grade chronic inflammation, usually leads to chronic inflammatory diseases and frailty in the elderly. However, some elderly escape from frailty and reach advanced age free of the consequences of inflammaging. This process has been called immunological remodeling, and it is the hallmark of healthy aging as described in the studies of centenarians in Italy. The biological markers of healthy aging are still a matter of debate, and the studies on the topic have focused on inflammatory versus remodeling processes and molecules. The sub-clinical inflammatory status associated with aging might be a deleterious event for populations living in countries where chronic infectious diseases are not prevalent. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world where they are, two possibilities may occur. Inflammatory responses may have a protective effect against these infectious agents. At the same time, the long-term consequences of protective immune responses during chronic infections may result in accelerated immunosenescence in these individuals. Therefore, the biological markers of healthy aging can vary according to environmental, cultural, and geographical settings that reflect worldwide, and in a non-biased, non-westernized perspective, the changes that we experience regarding our contacts with microorganisms and the outcomes of such contacts.

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“…In our application of this method to substantive data, we focused on explaining changes in the growth rate of 100year-olds. Although the benefits of avoiding the need for extensive mortality histories are most pertinent when studying old-age mortality, the variable-r method can be used to estimate growth between any two ages (Nepomuceno and Turra 2020). We believe this provides useful information on the drivers of growth between two ages in a population, while avoiding some of the 'thornier' issues that face analysts conducting full variable-r decomposition analyses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth

Canudas-Romo¹,

Shen²,

Payne³

2021

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDThe variable-r model provides demographers with a way to explore the contributions of demographic components (fertility, mortality, migration) to changes in populations' age structures. However, traditional variable-r methods require extremely long mortality series to explore growth at oldest-old ages. OBJECTIVEOur goal is to disentangle the old-age growth rate into two main components: the growth rate at some younger age, and reductions in mortality between the younger and older ages. METHODSWe focus on an adaptation of the variable-r model that can use shorter mortality series to explore population growth between two ages. RESULTSUsing data from the Human Mortality Database, we explore how these two components are driving the growth rate of 100-year-olds. Observed growth of those reaching age 100 results primarily from the high growth rates when those cohorts were 80-year-olds, and from time reductions in cohort mortality between ages 80 and 100. However, the latter component behaves differently across populations, with some countries experiencing recent slowdowns in cohort mortality declines or increases in mortality between ages 80 and 100. CONCLUSIONSWe find great diversity in the level of old-age mortality improvements across populations, and heterogeneity in the drivers of these improvements. Our findings highlight the need CONTRIBUTIONWe present illustrations of the use of the variable-r method to monitor demographic change in an online interactive application, estimated even when only short historical series of demographic data are available.

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The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000

Cited by 17 publications

References 39 publications

Age reporting in the Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination database: What can we learn from it?

Age reporting in the Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination database: What can we learn from it?

Inflammaging in Endemic Areas for Infectious Diseases

The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth

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