The Politics of Presidential Speechmaking, 1949-1980

Abstract

The study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants and consequences of presidential speechmaking, defined as the occurrence of a major, nationally broadcast and televised address. Major speeches delivered by Presidents Truman through Carter are examined during the period 1949-1980. Using a probit analysis, a prediction is made of the likelihood of a major speech occurring within a month, based on the effects of public attitudes, national conditions, and events. The results indicate that changes in public approval ratings and the presence of visible national events increase the likelihood that a president will deliver a speech. Conversely, worsening economic conditions (inflation and unemployment) as well as expanding military situations decrease speechmaking efforts. The findings also demonstrate that a president's popularity increases significantly with the delivery of a major address.

Influence of the Presidential Inaugural Address on Audience Perceptions of Candidate Image and the State of the Nation

“…The address allows the president the opportunity to have immediate access of communication to all citizens (Ragsdale, 1984). This is important because politics do not constitute a daily concern for most citizens and such speeches must acquire citizen attention to overcome this barrier (Cohen, 1995).…”

“…For more than two centuries, inaugural addresses have been a route to assist 13 the president in governing the nation (Sigelman, 1996). While the president speaks to citizens, the nation feels a sense of shared promise (Ragsdale, 1984). The success of the speech does not appear to be due to the style or speaking ability of the incoming president (Ragsdale, 1987); rather, the success of the speeches appears to rely on the audience's reaction (Lucas, 1988).…”

“…Major presidential speeches, such as the inaugural address, give the impression that the president is in charge of the nation and current political circumstances in our nation (Ragsdale, 1984). Through these speeches "the public is reassured that someone knows what needs to be done" (p. 983).…”

“…Ragsdale (1984) argued that presidential speeches not only aim at influencing audience perceptions of candidate image, but also hope to change audience perceptions of the president's policy agenda. Communication from the president to the public is an important and effective way to alter opinions about public policy (Shull & Ringlestein, 1993) and change the levels of support citizens hold for different policy areas (Jacobs & Shapiro, 2000).…”

“…Recall the standard intent and purpose of the inaugural addresses is to unify the nation, heal wounds caused from a divisive election (Beasley, 2001), and help audiences feel a shared promise for the nation (Ragsdale, 1984). Campbell and Jamieson (1990) discussed the need for people to feel like the incoming president was working toward the benefit of the nation.…”