The Political Significance of Luck: A Thucydidean Perspective

Abstract

Contemporary authorities invoke luck to explain the arbitrariness of economic success, to emphasize our shared vulnerability to disaster, and to urge more generous policy, legislation, and governance. According to Robert Frank, Martha Nussbaum, and Ronald Dworkin, for example, extreme bad luck can befall individuals no matter what they know or do. By redefining luck as a psychological phenomenon (rather than as a constitutive principle of the world), this article challenges the contemporary consensus. My approach to luck arises out of my engagement with the political thought of Thucydides. Whereas influential interpreters present Thucydides as a witness to the crushing power of bad luck, and whereas they criticize Thucydides’ Pericles for being insufficiently deferential to luck, I revisit and defend Pericles’ skeptical and psychological approach to luck, and I argue that Thucydides shares this approach, at least in the main. The pathological intellectual and emotional responses to apparent good or bad luck diagnosed by Pericles in his final speech recur throughout the History and influence the evolution of the whole war. Going beyond Pericles, Thucydides shows that the appeal of luck arises out of a human need to explain, beautify, or lament what is merely natural necessity, haphazard coincidence, or awful suffering.

Tucídides na Teoria das Relações Internacionais | Thucydides in International Relations Theory

“…É assim que Tucídides mostra os perigos da esperança infundada (Bedford & Workman, 2001), ou da esperança fundada em mera sorte (Schillinger, 2021), mas também as consequências do racionalismo excessivo (Rahe, 1995;Ahrensdorf, 1997). É certo que grande parte da literatura revista neste artigo vê em Tucídides um teórico disposto a reduzir a variedade que encontra a uma verdade subjacente e fundamental; ou seja, um ouriço.…”